Heat index numbers will spike as high as 112 degrees F in eastern sections of Palm Beach County, while Broward County could see heat index temperatures as high as 109 degrees F.

High temperatures in the low 90s paired with relative humidity of 80% or higher equates to “feels like” temperatures that the weather service considers dangerous.

The weekend looks to be nearly as hot. Saturday will see similar numbers, with Sunday dropping slightly to the 105 to 109 range.

On Friday, there is a 48% to 53% chance of rain throughout most of Palm Beach and Broward counties. “Thunderstorms could become strong today,” the NWS said in a release. “Aside from lightning and heavy rainfall, these storms could produce wind gusts up to 50 mph.”

Weekend daytime weather should be mostly sunny with afternoon thunderstorms, and a mild south  breeze of 5 to 9 mph.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration echoed CSU’s prediction Thursday in their updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

CSU said in their two-week forecast that there’s an 85% chance that the span of Aug. 6 to 19 will produce above-normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic. The norm is based on hurricane activity in the Atlantic from 1966–2023.

“We are quite confident that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at above-normal levels. … We believe that the next two weeks will be quite active for Atlantic hurricane activity,” forecasters said in their report.

Their prediction is based on several factors. Firstly, there’s already been activity: Tropical Storm Debby, which strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane just before making landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, maxed out the normal ACE for the time span, so any storm that follows vaults the status to above normal.

There is currently a tropical disturbance moving west across the tropical Atlantic that has a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days as it heads toward the Caribbean.

In their larger seasonal outlook, CSU said 2024 has been marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. All that warm water can fuel storm formation. Additionally, the warm water tends to create lower atmospheric pressure and an unstable atmosphere, which also is favorable for storms.

A key force in inhibiting hurricane formation is wind shear. CSU analysis indicates that there will be very little, if any, wind shear in the coming weeks in the tropical Atlantic off Africa, where August storms usually form. “Vertical wind shear is generally forecast to be below normal (e.g., easterly anomalies) across the Atlantic Main Development Region for the next four weeks,” said the report.

That’s because a monthslong weather cycle called the Madden-Julian Oscillation is ramping up over the Indian Ocean. When it does, it reduces tropical Atlantic wind shear, and causes storminess over Africa, which can lead to storms over the Atlantic.

NOAA agrees

Additionally, NOAA updated their 2024 hurricane season forecast on Thursday, reiterating earlier outlooks by calling for a “highly active” remainder of the season.

“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record,” said forecasters in a release.

The agency called for 17 to 24 named storms (the average is 14.4 between 1991 to 2020), 8-13 hurricanes (the average is 7.2) and 4 to 7 major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (the average is 3.2).

There have been four named storms thus far (Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby), leaving 20 more to go, if their worst-case prediction of 24 storms plays out.

NOAA called out similar atmospheric factors as CSU, but added that they expect the plums of dry Saharan dust, which travels off North Africa and over the Atlantic during summer, to dissipate. The dry air upon which the dust travels can halt hurricane formation.

The NOAA report also noted that in the coming months, La Niña is likely to kick in and reduce wind shear, thus enhancing hurricane formation.

The department of atmospheric science there has released its final 2024 hurricane season forecast for the year, calling for a “well-above-average” August through November.

One bright note is that it actually reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.

This season’s previous storms, Hurricanes Beryl and Debby, as well as Tropical Storms Alberto and Chris, are included in the numbers. That means the team is calling for 10 more hurricanes between August and Nov. 30, when hurricane season ends.

Forecasters predicted that 2024 will have about 190% of the average hurricane activity from 1991–2020. Last year had about 120%.

The most impactful Atlantic basin hurricane of 2023 was Idalia, which made landfall as a Category 3 storm on Aug. 30, in the Big Bend region of Florida, causing eight fatalities.

The Colorado State team said it has higher-than-normal confidence that this season will be extremely busy. Several factors play a role.

2024 has been marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. All that warm water can fuel storm formation. Additionally, the warm water tends to create lower atmospheric pressure and an unstable atmosphere, which also is favorable for storms.

Wind shear, which can topple hurricanes, has been below normal in June and July, which usually indicates low shear in the peak of the season from August to October.

The El Niño, which can ramp up wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, has faded, and a potential La Niña could kick in in the coming month. That would likely weaken wind shear even more, and favor storm intensification.

Learning from history

So far, 2024’s ocean and atmosphere conditions look a lot like those of past active seasons, such as 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010 and 2020, said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the department of atmospheric science at CSU and lead author of the report.

The report also predicted that for the remainder of the season, the east coast of the U.S., including the Florida peninsula, has a 30% chance of a major hurricane making landfall. The full season average from 1880–2020 is 21%.

The Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville has a 38% chance of a major hurricane making landfall. The full season average for that region from 1880–2020 is 27%.

Debby came ashore at 7 a.m. Monday as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, just north of the tiny coastal town of Steinhatchee, in a sparsely populated section of the Big Bend region. It moved slowly across northern Florida into southeastern Georgia and is forecast to move off the coast of South Caroline by late Tuesday and Wednesday, then approach the state’s coast on Thursday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned that just because the storm is moving into Georgia, it doesn’t mean the state won’t continue to see threats as waterways north of the border fill up and flow south.

“It is a very saturating, wet storm,” he said during an afternoon briefing at the state’s emergency operations center. “When they crest and the water that’s going to come down from Georgia, it’s just something that we’re going to be on alert for not just throughout today, but for the next week.”

About 500 people were rescued from flooded homes in Sarasota, the Sarasota Police Department said Monday in a social media post.

“Essentially we’ve had twice the amount of the rain that was predicted for us to have,” Sarasota County Fire Chief David Rathbun said in a social media update.

Officials in Manatee County said in a news release that 186 people were rescued from flood waters.

The Levy County Sheriff’s Department in Florida reported that a 13-year-old boy was killed in a storm-related incident Monday morning when a large tree fell on a mobile home in Fanning Springs, about 40 miles east of where the storm made landfall.

A truck driver, a 64-year-old man, died on Interstate 75 in the Tampa area after he lost control of his tractor trailer, which flipped over a concrete wall and dangled over water before the cab dropped into the water below. In Dixie County, a 38-year-old woman and a 12-year-old boy died in a car crash on wet roads Sunday night. The Florida Highway Patrol said a 14-year-old boy who was a passenger was hospitalized with serious injuries.

A fifth Debby-related death was reported in south Georgia, where a 19-year-old man was killed when a tree fell onto a porch.

Images posted on social media by Cedar Key Fire Rescue early Monday showed floodwaters rising along the streets of the city, south of where the storm made landfall. Water was “coming in at a pretty heavy pace,” the post said. Nearly 200,000 customers remained without power in Florida and Georgia on Monday night, down from a peak of more than 350,000, according to PowerOutage.us and Georgia Electric Membership Corp.

Between Saturday morning and Monday morning, South Florida recorded maximum wind speeds ranging from 20 mph up to 53 mph associated with Debby, according to the National Weather Service Miami’s preliminary data. Rainfall totals ranged from just over an inch to as much as about 4 inches in South Florida.

As of 8 p.m. Monday, Debby was located about 50 miles east of Valdosta, Georgia. The storm was moving northeast at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Facing ‘record-breaking’ rainfall

Debby’s slow movement is expected to cause “extremely large amounts” of rain over the southeastern states, NHC forecasters said.

Flash and urban flooding across portions of northern Florida could last through Friday morning and “historic rainfall” could flood parts of Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, forecasters said.

The National Weather Service is forecasting 12 to 16 inches of rain in areas east of Tallahassee, 16 to 20 inches around Savannah, Georgia, and 20 to 30 inches south of Charleston, South Carolina.

“This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding,” the hurricane center said Monday night.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 6 feet of storm surge along the Georgia and South Carolina coast as well, making for a potent flooding mix.

If Debby stalls over the coastal regions of Georgia and South Carolina, the area could get record-setting rain of up to 30 inches beginning Tuesday.

“There’s some really amazing rainfall totals being forecast and amazing in a bad way,” Michael Brennan, director of the hurricane center, said at a briefing. “That would be record-breaking rainfall associated with a tropical cyclone for both the states of Georgia and South Carolina if we got up to the 30-inch level.”

Officials in Savannah said the area could see a month’s worth of rain in four days if the system stalls over the region.

It’s going to be “a significant storm. The word historic cannot be underscored here,” Savannah Mayor Van. R. Johnson said during a news conference.

MAP: Here’s the latest forecast track of Hurricane Debby

Meanwhile, forecasters are also watching a disorganized tropical wave located north of Suriname and a few hundred miles to the east of the Windward Islands in the Atlantic that is headed toward the central and western Caribbean later this week. The environment in the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico where it could move later this week is more favorable for it to develop, the hurricane center said.

As of Tuesday, it was given a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 30% within the next seven days.

The next storm to form would be named Ernesto. Hurricane Beryl, the earliest recorded Category 5 ever in a hurricane season, killed dozens as it swept through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas in late June and early July.

Earlier in July, Colorado State University experts updated their hurricane season forecast, calling for an even busier season than the already “extremely active” forecast they earlier predicted.

Staff writers Robin Webb and Victoria Ballard contributed to this report. Information from The Associated Press was used to supplement this news article.

To begin to read that story, you need elevation. Only then can you see nature’s braille, the vast textures and scars that reveal what the Everglades was, what it is, and what it could be.

The South Florida Sun Sentinel recently took a flight with Everglades Foundation chief science officer Stephen Davis and pilot Robert Decker of nonprofit LightHawk Conservation Flying so as to better read the Everglades at a moment when things are about to change.

The timing was ideal. Water flow in South Florida is about to shift forever. Firstly, the Army Corps of Engineers will soon begin a more nature-friendly process of releasing polluted water from Lake Okeechobee.

Secondly, major Everglades Restoration projects have come online recently, and the linchpin of the $10.5 billion restoration, the Everglades Agricultural Area Reservoir, is now under construction. With luck, it’ll be operational by 2030.

When it’s all said and done, both efforts are supposed to prevent polluted Lake Okeechobee water from flowing east and west, where it decimates estuaries — and economies — near Stuart and Fort Myers Beach. And restoration aims to clean Lake Okeechobee water and send it south, where it will replenish the Everglades and Florida Bay, just as it has for 5,000 years.

But questions remain, such as whether there are enough filtration marshes to clean the water before sending it to Everglades National Park.

The brutality of a straight line

From an altitude of 1,000 feet, the story becomes more clear. We pass over a saw-toothed protrusion of suburbia into the Everglades, then fly over what at first appears to be a vast wilderness. But as we pass north of the Tamiami Trail, it’s clear the land, the river of grass, is actually cut into isolated cells.

Each cell has a different texture. Some are lush with sloughs and tree islands sculpted into teardrop patterns through thousands of years of slow sheet flow. Others are dry and monotonous, a single color, a single dominant plant species — one flat pan for miles. Even though they’re “wild,” they’re not.

“Those are the sections that have been cut off from water flow,” yells Davis over the din of the Cessna’s engine.

From up here, once you see the wilderness, straight lines make no sense — a road, a canal, a boundary with suburbia — there’s a brutality to them.

These blocks have been compartmentalized for decades, parching one, flooding another. “One of the goals of restoration is decompartmentalization,” says Davis.

The water, which flows from pastures near Orlando, through Lake Okeechobee and cane fields and stormwater treatment areas, doesn’t just need to flow south to restore the Everglades, it needs to be spread out as it once was, before all the canals.

We spot a hard laceration below — the L-67 canal slices diagonally just south of Weston, straight through the Everglades and Francis S. Taylor Wildlife Management Area (aka Water Conservation Area 3B).

The levee acts as a dam. The ramifications are stark. To the west, a pattern of teardrop-shaped tree islands, the land looking as it would have 5,000 years ago. To the east, a blank flat plain of sawgrass stretching toward Miami Lakes and Miramar.

The monocrop-like areas are not natural, and don’t support as much life, says Davis.  A 50/50 ratio of slough to sawgrass would be ideal. But it’s not about looking pretty.

“That patterned landscape is fundamental to driving the ecology of the Everglades. Having a flat marsh landscape is not as good as one that’s corrugated, or patterned,” he says.

The flat areas are either fully wet or fully dry, which is tough on both plants and animals. A patterned landscape gives fish deeper water to make it through the dry season, thus giving wading birds more food, and land animals more raised areas to exploit. There’s just more diversity, and that’s a good thing, says Davis.

He points out one dry area that will eventually receive water from the pending EAA Reservoir. A canal spreader will disperse water widely, and Davis says a diversity of plants, elevations and animals will follow.

Though much of Everglades restoration is about sending more water south to the national park, some areas get too much water these days. “Water today, especially as we get into the wet season, will pile up against the Tamiami Trail and along the L-67 Canal, and that’s what creates problems on the tree islands. It concerns the Miccosukee because it affects their lands,” says Davis.

In the next few years, the L-67 canal will be perforated, spreading water out into dry areas.

Restoration has added three miles of bridges to allow more flow under Tamiami Trail, and by 2026, Davis says there will be another set of five or six smaller bridges added, all of which will spread flow more evenly.

The linchpin

As we fly north, we spot bright green rectangles ahead, the plush corduroy of sugarcane fields. Sugarcane makes up the bulk of the Everglades Agricultural Area, a swath of land south of Lake Okeechobee that’s a bit smaller than the state of Rhode Island. Once part of Everglades flow, it was carved and drained throughout the 20th century. The lake keeps the crops irrigated and the Herbert Hoover Dike keeps towns in the EAA safe from flooding.

Below, a very large chunk of the EAA is being torn up by backhoes and dump trucks. It’s the site of the future EAA Reservoir, what many consider the linchpin of the entire restoration effort. The tractors are stripping out the phosphorus-rich soil so as to amass 37-foot-tall embankments that will form the 23-foot deep, 10,000-acre reservoir.

When the lake is high, the reservoir will store water, and reduce harmful Lake Okeechobee discharges to the coasts.

The water can also be used for crop irrigation. Before it flows south, though, it must be cleaned of phosphorus. Phosphorous fuels algal blooms, and once unleashed into the Everglades, allows plants such as cattails to choke out natural vegetation.

Next to the reservoir is the new 6,500-acre stormwater treatment area (STA), essentially a big marsh, which cleans the water.

But there might not be enough STA treatment to clean the water to high enough standards. “The question is, do we have sufficient treatment?” says Davis. “We won’t know until we get there. But we will not compromise on water quality. The water has to be clean. If we need more treatment, we’ll make it happen. We will ensure that water quality standards are met.”

If the STAs don’t remove enough phosphorus, Davis says the state, who is responsible for water quality, can try to identify phosphorus hot spots within the EAA. The other option would be for the state and federal government to buy more land for more STAs — a contentious proposition, given the years of delay to even get to this point.

The lake

Lake Okeechobee lies ahead. When we fly over, we can make out the wind-blown striations of an algae bloom in the water. We don’t see the gleaming green slime of blooms past. On July 7, 90% of the lake experienced an algae bloom. When the algae flushes down canals to the coasts, they wreak havoc, sometimes growing toxic.

In other flushing events, so much fresh water flowed into estuaries that it killed saltwater seagrass meadows — the foundation of the Indian River Lagoon ecosystem.

As we pass the Tamiami Trail on the way home, areas south of the new bridges are showing signs of diversity, hints of how the areas will shift in coming decades.

Humans are ambitious.

It was ambition that carved up the Everglades 100 years ago — a vision of an agricultural wonderland and suburban wonderland. And it’s ambition now that has us thinking we can fix it.

“To date, our biggest step forward in restoration is that area around the Tamiami Trail and along east Shark River Slough,” says Davis after the flight. “In my mind, that’s the finish line for restoration. If we can just get the water down to the park, across the Tamiami Trail … that’s a huge achievement.”

Bill Kearney covers the environment, the outdoors and tropical weather. He can be reached at bkearney@sunsentinel.com. Follow him on Instagram @billkearney or on X @billkearney6. 

The dust is normal for this time of year, as African monsoons push dry air off of North Africa and across the Atlantic. The dry air cramps stormy weather, and carries particles that refract brilliant orange and red hues as the sun rises and sets.

Despite the dust, there is still a 60% chance of precipitation each day this weekend, and the heat index temperatures over the region will remain in the triple digits.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms could increase next week, said forecasters. Additionally, there’s a moderate chance of excessive heat through Wednesday of next week.

Saharan dust, and the dry air that carries it, can hinder hurricane formation.

7/18 at 11:15am: We can view the approaching plume of Saharan Dust in real-time by using@NOAASatellites (GOES-East).

Anticyclonic flow around the base of an expansive Bermuda High (H symbol) will bring the plume to South Florida this weekend. https://t.co/JxbG0JSPPm pic.twitter.com/dFFn4BcMay

— NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) July 18, 2024

“Hurricanes and tropical systems require adequate moisture for cloud formation,” said Robert Molleda of the National Weather Service, “which is what helps to provide the energy for these storms to form. If you have a layer of dry warm air, that can limit potential tropical storms from forming or intensifying.”

The dry air can kneecap storms in another way, too.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the Saharan air layer that carries the dust is traveling at a brisk 25 to 55 mph — fast enough for its wind shear to knock a storm off balance.

The dry blast “can cause tilting of the tropical cyclone vortex with height and can weaken the storm’s internal heat engine,” said NOAA.

Climate researcher Brian McNoldy with the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science said not only does the dry air curtail hurricane formation, but if it’s a fairly thick plume, it actually absorbs a decent fraction of the sun’s energy before that energy reaches the ocean and heats it. In other words, the dust, if thick enough, can help the oceans cool a bit, and make hurricanes in the remainder of July less likely.

Maximum heat indices are forecast on average between 105-110 degrees F for most areas, but some locations could exceed 110.

The heat will continue throughout the week, with forecasters predicting a slight moderation of temperatures on Tuesday, but a ramping up of heat and humidity through Friday.

Heat index temperatures could reach as high at 107 degrees F today in inland areas, with the coast being a tad less hot.

Daytime highs will be in the low 90s throughout the week.

There will be a 20% to 30% chance of showers each day through Wednesday, ramping up to 60% Thursday and Friday.

How do you keep your AC from breaking down? Should you pour bleach down the overflow pipe? Can you vacuum the slime out? Do you really need high-end filters?

We spoke to local AC experts about how to avoid those dreaded AC failures.

Filter fix

Adam Ross, executive director at the South Florida Academy of Air Conditioning in Fort Lauderdale, which trains HVAC students, said changing your filter is one of the easiest ways to keep breakdowns few and far between.

“You want to change your filters every month,” he said. “It’s better to buy a less expensive air filter and change it every month than it is to buy an expensive air filter and only change it every six months.”

Filters can cost between $12 and $80, which can create misunderstandings when shopping. “People think, ‘Oh, I’ll get a better one and it’ll last longer,’ ” Ross said. “It doesn’t work like that. It’s better to get a less expensive filter and commit to changing it.”

Marco Stangoni of AA American Air Conditioning of Delray Beach, agrees. “The filters are the one thing you always want to keep up on,” he said. “I would get the least expensive paper filters. You’re going to have to change them a little more frequently, so buy a case at a time.”

He added that the proper size is important. “If you  don’t get the right size filter, all the dirt’s going to bypass the filter and ruin your coil, and you’ll end up with big expenses later on.”

Ross said if you don’t change filters often enough, it stresses the system. “When the filter starts to accumulate dust and debris, you’re not going to get as much air flow in the system and it will make your system work harder, which can lead to failures faster, especially if you have an older system.”

Stangoni suggested changing filters every month or two months, depending on how often you open your door or whether you have pets.

Clogged culprit

Clogged drain lines might be the most common cause of AC failure. “They’re one of the biggest culprits,” Ross said. “and they can happen to new or old systems.”

Ross explained that clogging occurs because AC units not only cool, they dehumidify. The system collects that moisture in a pan and sends it down a pipe to the exterior of the house. When that pipe clogs with accumulated algae and slime, the pan fills up and can spill over, flooding whatever space the AC is in, often an attic or closet. To prevent this, units have kill switches that shut the AC down when the pan fills up.

That’s when a lot of people call an AC tech. But there are ways to prevent slime buildup, and ways to unclog a pipe without an AC tech coming over.

To prevent the pipe from clogging, some people pour bleach into the top of the pipe every month or two. The top of the pipe is always at the interior unit and accessible. Other homeowners use tablets. Opinions differ on the use of bleach – some say it’s fine, others say it’s corrosive to PVC pipes.

“Old school folks do put bleach,” Stangoni said. “We’ve used vinegar. The vinegar doesn’t seem to have the same potency. I don’t personally put bleach in my line because I don’t know what effect that’s going to have on the glue that holds the [PVC] fittings together.”

“Don’t pour bleach down the drain line,” Ross said. “It won’t help your problem over the long term.”

He said you can buy anti-slime tablets online that have a slow release. “That’ll kill slime and sludge over time,” he said. “It’s not the end of the world if you pour bleach down there.” But he said the slime is going to start to grow back. The tablets offer longer-term prevention.

“Tablets are OK,” Stangoni said. But if the line is already full of algae they’re not going to get rid of it. In other words, he sees them as preventative but not a solution if the drain pipe is full of slime.

As for bleach’s corrosiveness on PVC, an online retailer for industrial supplies and PVC, pvcfittingsonline.com, says, “You can safely use bleach to clean and disinfect your PVC pipes, as long as you dilute it first and avoid mixing it with other chemicals.”

The site suggests a dilution strength of one part bleach to four parts water for regular cleaning and disinfecting, and a one-to-two ratio if necessary.

Be careful not to mix the chemicals you pour down the pipe, though. Mixing bleach with ammonia or vinegar “can create poisonous gasses that can cause damage to your piping and your health,” says pvcfittingsonline.com.

If the pipe is already clogged, there are some easy at-home solutions you can try before calling a technician. Typically, a tech will blow the drain out with compressed air. But you can use a vacuum to suck it out the other end.

Stangoni suggests using a vacuum both preventatively and as a fix after a clog. He said it’s a good idea to vacuum out the line every few months. “That’s something any homeowner can do,” he said.

You’ll need a small wet/dry vacuum that you can pick up at a hardware store. He said the PVC is typically ¾-inch pipe, and the wet/dry vacuums have tubing that should fit tight upon the outflow pipe.

First,  turn off your AC. Then snug the vacuum’s nozzle on the AC’s outlet pipe outside the house, and let the vacuum run. While it’s running, go inside and listen at the other end of the pipe. “Make sure you can hear the vac pulling at the other end,” he said. “You need to hear that vac sound coming from the outside to the inside, so you know it’s clear.”

Refrigerant failures

Refrigerant fluid, or lack of it, is another culprit. If the air coming through the ducts doesn’t seem that cold, there could be a refrigerant leak, Ross said. He said that copper lines can start to leak refrigerant in systems that are older than 10 years.

Refrigerants, such as Freon, are clear and difficult to see. “You can spray soapy water on the evaporator coil and look for bubbles,” said Ross, “but you probably want a service tech out there to do that.”

If there’s one leak, there’s usually more, he said. Refilling Freon is the cheaper option, but it doesn’t fix the leak. “It’s also bad for the environment,” Ross said.

The other option is to replace the entire system. That’s obviously much more expensive, but Ross said it might save you money in the long run.

Dusty ducts

The ducts that bring air to each room can get quite dusty, and some marketing materials for duct cleaning services warn of mold. But Ross said “there’s not a ton of efficiency loss, even if they’re dusty.” He said cleaning them is more about hygiene.

Stangoni is a little more duct-averse. “I would leave ducts alone unless they’re dirty from construction,” he said.

The outside unit

The outside AC is less complicated, and blows hot air away from the house. But it still needs a little attention.

“Everything is about airflow,” Ross said. “The unit outside needs airflow. It’s pulling heat from inside your house, and blowing it outside, and sucking air through the sides and blowing the air up. So you need some clearance around the side. It’s common in Florida that people want to hide them, so they pack in hedges around it.” Those hedges can grow in, so make sure there’s a bit of space for airflow.

The outside unit also contains steel coils. “I would not mess with the coils at all,” Stangoni said. “I would leave the [coils] on the outdoor unit alone … You can’t constantly pour water on them because they’re metal, and it will degrade the metal.” There’s one exception, though, he said. Houses often have dryer vents placed near the outdoor AC unit. “That lint can start to accumulate inside the coils. So you gotta watch out for that.”

Bill Kearney covers the environment, the outdoors and tropical weather. He can be reached at bkearney@sunsentinel.com. Follow him on Instagram @billkearney or on X @billkearney6. 

The forecast team there used data collected through the season thus far to adjust its predictions. In nearly every category, forecasters are calling for the seasons to be more robust:

— The number of named storms jumped from 23 to 25. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

— Total hurricanes jumped from 11 to 12. The 1991 to 2020 average is 7.2.

— Major hurricanes increased from five to six. The 1991 to 2020 average is 3.2.

— Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) increased from 210 to 230. The 1991 to 2020 average is 123.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy is sum of tropical storm and hurricane wind duration and intensity, so experts consider it a more accurate depiction of a season’s activity than simply the number of storms.

Climate researcher Brian McNoldy with the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science wrote on X that Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, contributed mightily to this year’s ACE.

Beryl “has boosted the 2024 tally to an incredible level for so early in the season. The ACE is higher than any other year on record by this date, and is actually already higher than 14% of all entire hurricane seasons going back to 1851!”

The Colorado State report also details the probabilities of at least one major hurricane landfall in different regions after July 8.

Forecasters said the continental U.S. coastline has a 57% chance of a major hurricane strike. Historically, there’s a 43% chance.

And the U.S. east coast, including Florida, has a 31% chance of a major hurricane strike. Historically for the east coast, there’s a 21% chance.

The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexico border has a 38% chance this year. Historically, there’s a 27% chance.

Colorado State’s Philip Klotzbach, who specializes in Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts, wrote on X that one reason for the very active forecast was the “significant potential for La Niña development. La Niña typically increases Atlantic hurricane activity via decreases in Caribbean/tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” he wrote.

A La Niña is a natural weather phenomenon in which cool water upwellings along the Pacific coast of South America result in global weather patterns, including less wind over the tropical Atlantic.

Another factor is high sea-surface temperatures. Hot water fuels hurricanes, and the Atlantic has been exceptionally hot this year.

As of July 7, average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were actually just below what they were during 2023, which was exceptionally hot. But they’re well above the 1991 to 2020 average. Hurricane Beryl may have helped cool this off a tad, and a massive plume of Saharan dust that is currently over the Atlantic can also cool oceans to some extent, according to McNoldy.

Klotzbach went on to write that while there as been a bit of anomalous cooling in parts of the Atlantic, “most of the North Atlantic remains much warmer than normal, favoring hurricane activity. This anomalous warmth is [the] primary reason why CSU’s seasonal hurricane forecast for 2024 is calling for such an active season.”

Tornadoes remain possible through Monday night in parts of east Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, the National Hurricane Center said, and the risk will spread to southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern Indiana and Ohio on Tuesday.

As of 8 p.m. Monday, Beryl, the first hurricane of 2024 to strike the U.S., was 30 miles east-southeast of Tyler, Texas, and 225 miles southwest of Little Rock, Arkansas, with its sustained winds dropping to 35 mph, losing its earlier tropical storm status. Beryl was moving north-northeast at 16 mph.

On the forecast track, the center of Beryl was expected to move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. Beryl will likely weaken further into a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday, the hurricane center said.

All watches and warnings, including storm surge warnings, had been discontinued by Monday night.

When the storm made landfall shortly before 5 a.m. ET on Monday near Matagorda, Texas, about 80 miles from downtown Houston, it brought dangerous storm surge and high winds with gusts reaching 91 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

High waters quickly began to close streets across Houston and flood warnings were in effect across a wide stretch of the Texas coast, leaving more than 2 million CenterPoint Energy customers without power, The Associated Press reported.

At least two people were killed when trees fell on homes, and the National Hurricane Center said damaging winds and flash flooding would continue as Beryl pushes inland. A third person, a civilian employee of the Houston Police Department, was killed when he was trapped in flood waters under a highway overpass, Houston Mayor John Whitmire said. There were no immediate reports of widespread structural damage, however.

More than 1,000 flights were canceled at Houston’s two airports Monday, according to tracking data from FlightAware.

Much of the Texas coast was under a flash flood watch earlier Monday, where forecasters expected Beryl to dump as much as 10 inches of rain in some areas.

Forecasters expected an additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall across portions of eastern Texas through Monday night, with some areas drawing 12 inches.

Southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri are expected to see between 3 and 5 inches of rain through Tuesday, possibly higher in some areas, and the hurricane center said “considerable flash and urban flooding is possible.”

Houston officials reported at least 25 water rescues by Monday afternoon, mostly for people with vehicles stuck in floodwaters.

The fourth-largest city in America is being absolutely rocked by a hurricane: pic.twitter.com/WdtAj35CpU

— Matthew Cappucci (@MatthewCappucci) July 8, 2024

Meteorologists in Louisiana were watching for lingering rainbands, which could drop copious amounts of rain wherever they materialize, as well as “quick, spin-up tornadoes,” said Donald Jones, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Lake Charles, Louisiana.

Beryl was the earliest storm to strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic last week, and the record-breaking storm left at least 11 people dead on islands in the eastern Caribbean.

Hurricane Beryl weakened to a tropical storm hours after it made landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico early Friday morning and emerged in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Saturday. Over the weekend, Beryl crossed the open water and headed northwest toward Texas’ Gulf coast.

Beryl was forecast to bring more strong rain and winds into additional states over the coming days. One of those, Missouri was already dealing with a wet summer. Heavy rains unrelated to the storm prompted several water rescues around the city of Columbia, where rivers and creeks were already high ahead of Beryl’s expected arrival on Tuesday.

Information from The Associated Press was used to supplement this report.