Hurricane season is upon us, with a multitude of experts warning that this year’s will be very active. They’re urging the public to prepare.
The season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Here’s an overview of what forecasters are saying, why the season looks rough, how to get ready, and how to save a bit of money while doing so.
An ‘explosive’ season ahead
Three weather services have all said this coming hurricane season will be a strong one.
In its annual May outlook, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that the 2024 hurricane season has an 85% chance of being above normal.
They called for:
— 17 to 25 named storms with minimum sustained winds of 39 mph. The average year has 14.
— Eight to 13 hurricanes. The average year has seven.
— Four to seven major hurricanes with sustained winds over 111 mph. The average is three.
These numbers are the “highest ever” that NOAA has issued for its May outlook.
Colorado State echoed NOAA’s outlook in its annual April hurricane forecast. Experts there called for an “extremely active” Atlantic hurricane season.
They estimated 23 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this year. The average from 1991 to 2020 was 14.4, and the active 2023 Atlantic season saw 20 storms.
Colorado State predicted that 11 of those storms will be hurricanes — the most it has ever predicted for its April outlook. Last year there were seven hurricanes.
Five of those will likely reach major hurricane strength (Categories 3, 4 and 5), they said. 2023 had three.
The report also said the east coast of the U.S., including Florida, had a 34% chance of a major hurricane making landfall this year. The average from 1880-2020 was 21%.
AccuWeather predicted a “potentially explosive” hurricane season this summer and fall with similar numbers to both NOAA and Colorado State, calling for eight to 12 hurricanes.
By contrast, the 2023 season had seven hurricanes. Hurricane Idalia was the only storm last year to make landfall in the U.S., striking the Big Bend region of Florida on Aug. 30 as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds.
The NHC’s Graham said “all of the ingredients are definitely in place for us to have an active season. … It’s all coming together. You have warm energy in the oceans. You have an active African Monsoon. We don’t expect a whole lot of shear. … It takes all these ingredients to come up with a forecast like this.”
Record hot water
Each weather service cited the Atlantic Ocean’s exceptionally high sea-surface temperatures as one of the drivers of their active forecast.
The Main Development Region for hurricanes, an area that runs from the west coast of Africa to the Gulf of Mexico, has water temperatures that are 2.5 months ahead of schedule. In other words, it’s already as hot as it normally would be in August (2013-2023 average).
That warm water fuels hurricanes.
“This is a very concerning development considering this part of the Atlantic Ocean is where more than 80% of the storms form, which go on to become tropical storms or hurricanes,” said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter.
Porter is highly confident that sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin will remain well above the historical average throughout the 2024 hurricane season.
Though climate change due to human activity is warming the planet, no one knows exactly why seas are this hot. “We’re at more than a year now of blowing past records by giant margins,” said University of Miami climatologist Brian McNoldy.
One culprit is low wind levels over the Main Development Region — the calmer the water, the faster it warms up.
La Niña on the way
Though this past winter’s El Niño was a strong one, it’s fading fast, and forecasters expect a La Niña to kick in over the summer, just in time for peak hurricane season.
Forecasters said there’s a 77% chance of La Niña forming from August through October, which will reduce wind shear, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Basin.
That’s not great news. La Niñas typically reduce wind shear over the Atlantic, and wind shear can topple even the strongest storms. If La Niña shows up as expected, hurricanes will have a better chance of surviving and doing damage.
Honing in on threats
Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, said a theme for this year was that risk is “about the impact, not the category.”
He said that when the NWS looked at 2013-2023 hurricane fatalities they found that 90% result from water.
A significant amount of those were from people drowning in their automobiles. Additionally, storm surge caused 41 fatalities during Hurricane Ian. Inland flooding takes lives as well.
To that end, in August the National Hurricane Center will roll out a new map that shows predictions for inland areas, where wind and flooding can be deadly.
The new graphic has colors showing which places face threats in a much broader way than before.
Graham also warned about how quickly storms can strengthen. “Every Category 5 storm that made landfall in the last 100 years was a tropical storm or less three days prior.”
Hurricane Idalia, which pummeled Florida’s Big Bend region last September, jumped from a tropical storm with winds of 70 mph to an enraged Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds of 130 mph in a period of just over 24 hours.
The storm took just 12 hours to ramp from Category 1 to Category 3.
And once the system became a hurricane, it only took a day for it to race across the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall about 55 miles north of Cedar Key.
The National Hurricane Center dubs any storm that gains 35 mph or more of maximum sustained wind speed in a 24-hour period as “rapidly intensifying.” Idalia gained 50 mph in that timeframe.
It’s common to think of the category of a storm as a way to predict risk, and that power is certainly dangerous. But NHC Michael Brenner said in a separate NOAA briefing on Friday that rainfall can be deadly, and does not depend on storm category.
“It doesn’t take a major hurricane making landfall in your area for there to be major impacts, especially from the water hazards. Rainfall flooding has been the deadliest hazard for tropical storms and hurricanes over the last 10 years,” he said. “It’s responsible for more than half of the fatalities. And rainfall flooding is almost entirely unrelated to the strength of a storm. It doesn’t matter what category it is. … All that matters is how long it rains and how hard it rains in a given location.”
East coasters need to pay particular attention. Surf and rip currents killed more than storm surge over last 10 years, he said. Those forces are especially dangerous along east coast-facing beaches, he said, like those in Southeast Florida.
How to prepare
Mary Blakeney, Palm Beach County’s public safety department emergency management director, has said the first step is making a plan: Residents should be aware of their hazards, such as flooding, and evacuation zones.
People should also come up with a communication plan, Blakeney said, which includes determining a safe location or shelter to stay at. If staying home, securing the house and keeping safe any pets or family members with disabilities is crucial. The county also offers transportation to shelters through Palm Tran, the county’s bus system.
A second step is building a kit. That should include:
— A gallon of water per person (and pets) per day for up to about a week
— Canned foods
— Prescription medication
— Flashlights, spare batteries
— Personal hygiene items
— Cash and important documents, such as identification, medical insurance cards, insurance policies and any valuable family memorabilia.
The third part of the process is getting involved. That means offering help to neighbors and friends before, during and after a natural disaster.
A fourth step is staying informed. That includes staying up-to-date on any current storm information, such as by using county emergency notification systems. Palm Beach County’s is AlertPBC, which people may register for though the county’s website. Broward County’s is AlertBroward.
Above all else, county officials urged people to listen to the county, whether they think the storm will be a big deal or not. “When we ask you to evacuate, please evacuate,” County Administrator Verdenia Baker said.
At the Friday NOAA briefing, Erik A. Hooks, FEMA deputy administrator, emphasized planning earlier than later. “The time to make sure you have an understanding of your unique risk is now,” he said. Hooks suggested questions to ask of yourself and loved ones when assessing the challenges of evacuating in an emergency.
— Do you have medication that requires refrigeration?
— Do you have a medical device that runs off electricity?
— Do you have mobility challenges that make it more difficult to evacuate?
— When did you last do an insurance checkup, including on flood insurance?
“Now is the time to ask these questions, understand your risks, and put a plan together so you are prepared when disaster strikes,” he said.
Hooks also suggested key steps to preparing for a hurricane.
— Know your risk. Identify specific hazards you face. You can find your area’s risks at the FEMA risk index. https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps/products-tools/national-risk-index
—Know when and where to go. That could mean a shelter or a home of a loved one or friend. You can find Broward County hurricane shelters here: https://www.broward.org/Hurricane/pages/shelters.aspx
And Palm Beach County hurricane shelters here: https://discover.pbcgov.org/publicsafety/dem/pages/shelters.aspx
— Visit your state and county emergency management websites to know evacuations routes.
— Know what to bring. Build a go-bag with emergency essentials, and make sure everyone in the household knows where they are. Don’t forget your pets.
He also suggested downloading the FEMA app for updates on watches and warnings.
Congressman Jared Moskowitz, also at the Friday NOAA briefing, emphasized that now is the time figure out what evacuation zone you live in. Florida evacuation zones can be found at FloridaDisaster.org: https://www.floridadisaster.org/knowyourzone
Tax holiday
There is a tax-free holiday for residents preparing for hurricane season. Goods such as batteries, flashlights, pet food and portable generators will not include the state’s usual 6% tax from June 1 to June 14.
There will be a second holiday from Aug. 24 through Sept. 6.
“It’s an opportunity to save some money, yes, and it’s an opportunity to generate activity for our retailers,” Florida Retail Federation President Scott Shalley said of the tax holiday. “But most importantly, it’s an opportunity for Floridians to be reminded about hurricane season, to prepare for hurricane season and to get essential supplies.”
Among other things, shoppers will be able to avoid taxes on reusable ice packs costing $20 or less; portable radios, fuel tanks and packages of batteries costing $50 or less; food-storage coolers costing $60 or less; tarps costing $100 or less; and portable generators costing $3,000 or less.
Also, the tax exemptions apply to such things as wet dog or cat food costing $10 or less; pet leashes costing $20 or less; cat litter costing $25 or less; pet beds costing $40 or less; and over-the-counter pet medications, pet carriers and bags of dry dog or cat food costing $100 or less.
Information from News Service of Florida and The Associated Press was used to supplement this news article.
