The forecast has the storm remaining well off the U.S. east coast but forecasters warned of life-threatening surf and rip currents. Hurricane warnings are posted on the island of Bermuda, where the effects of Ernesto will begin to be felt late Thursday with destructive winds and flooding forecast through the weekend.

Here’s the latest forecast path:

It is the season’s third hurricane, and forecasters are predicting that the storm could strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane by Friday. Ernesto’s peak wind speeds could reach 115 mph by Friday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Ernesto was located about 570 miles south-southwest of Bermuda as of 11 a.m. Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, moving north at 14 mph. Hurricane-force winds reach up to 60 miles from Ernesto’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles.

A hurricane watch is in place for Bermuda, where the center of Ernesto is expected to pass on Saturday.

The National Hurricane Center on Thursday was predicting 4 to 8 inches of rain, with a maximum of 12 inches in localized areas.

AccuWeather meteorologists said in a statement Wednesday afternoon that wind gusts as high as 140 mph are forecast for Bermuda, up to 3 feet of storm surge.

“We could be dealing with a major hurricane approaching Bermuda this weekend,” said AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno in the statement. “Ernesto is forecast to track just west of Bermuda. That puts Bermuda in the right front quadrant of the hurricane, which is where we typically see the worst impacts from a storm.”

Ernesto, which became a tropical storm in the Atlantic on Monday, is expected to move at a slower speed as it continues heading north, or potentially northeast, on Friday and Saturday.

National Hurricane Center forecasters said Thursday Ernesto will generate swells that will reach the U.S. East Coast later this week and the weekend, despite being far offshore. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is expected.

“Beach goers should be aware of a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards,” the hurricane center said.

Ernesto dropped torrential rain on the eastern portion of Puerto Rico. Nearly half a million of 1.4 million customers remained in the dark more than a day after Ernesto swiped past Puerto Rico late Tuesday as a tropical storm before strengthening into a hurricane. Hundreds of thousands of people also are without water given the power outages.

Luma Energy, the company that operates transmission and distribution of power in Puerto Rico, said early Wednesday that its priority was to restore power to hospitals, the island’s water and sewer company and other essential services.

When pressed for an estimate of when power would be restored, Alejandro González, Luma’s operations director, declined to say.

“It would be irresponsible to provide an exact date,” he said at a news conference late Wednesday.

Puerto Rico’s power grid was razed by Hurricane Maria in September 2017 as a Category 4 storm, and it remains frail as crews continue to rebuild the system.

Not everyone can afford generators on the island of 3.2 million people with a more than 40% poverty rate.

“People already prepared themselves with candles,” said Lucía Rodríguez, a 31-year-old street vendor.

Hurricane season, which runs from June 1-Nov. 30, has entered the busiest time of the year from mid-August to October. The next named storm will be Francine.

Though July was quiet, experts at Colorado State said last week the remainder of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season should be “extremely active,” with the likelihood of 10 more hurricanes.

Colorado State’s department of atmospheric science’s final 2024 hurricane season forecast called for a “well-above-average” August through November, although it reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration echoed Colorado State’s prediction in its updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration echoed CSU’s prediction Thursday in their updated 2024 hurricane season forecast, calling for an “extremely active” remainder of the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.

CSU said in their two-week forecast that there’s an 85% chance that the span of Aug. 6 to 19 will produce above-normal Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic. The norm is based on hurricane activity in the Atlantic from 1966–2023.

“We are quite confident that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at above-normal levels. … We believe that the next two weeks will be quite active for Atlantic hurricane activity,” forecasters said in their report.

Their prediction is based on several factors. Firstly, there’s already been activity: Tropical Storm Debby, which strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane just before making landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida, maxed out the normal ACE for the time span, so any storm that follows vaults the status to above normal.

There is currently a tropical disturbance moving west across the tropical Atlantic that has a 60% chance of developing in the next seven days as it heads toward the Caribbean.

In their larger seasonal outlook, CSU said 2024 has been marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. All that warm water can fuel storm formation. Additionally, the warm water tends to create lower atmospheric pressure and an unstable atmosphere, which also is favorable for storms.

A key force in inhibiting hurricane formation is wind shear. CSU analysis indicates that there will be very little, if any, wind shear in the coming weeks in the tropical Atlantic off Africa, where August storms usually form. “Vertical wind shear is generally forecast to be below normal (e.g., easterly anomalies) across the Atlantic Main Development Region for the next four weeks,” said the report.

That’s because a monthslong weather cycle called the Madden-Julian Oscillation is ramping up over the Indian Ocean. When it does, it reduces tropical Atlantic wind shear, and causes storminess over Africa, which can lead to storms over the Atlantic.

NOAA agrees

Additionally, NOAA updated their 2024 hurricane season forecast on Thursday, reiterating earlier outlooks by calling for a “highly active” remainder of the season.

“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions have set the stage for an extremely active hurricane season that could rank among the busiest on record,” said forecasters in a release.

The agency called for 17 to 24 named storms (the average is 14.4 between 1991 to 2020), 8-13 hurricanes (the average is 7.2) and 4 to 7 major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (the average is 3.2).

There have been four named storms thus far (Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby), leaving 20 more to go, if their worst-case prediction of 24 storms plays out.

NOAA called out similar atmospheric factors as CSU, but added that they expect the plums of dry Saharan dust, which travels off North Africa and over the Atlantic during summer, to dissipate. The dry air upon which the dust travels can halt hurricane formation.

The NOAA report also noted that in the coming months, La Niña is likely to kick in and reduce wind shear, thus enhancing hurricane formation.

The department of atmospheric science there has released its final 2024 hurricane season forecast for the year, calling for a “well-above-average” August through November.

One bright note is that it actually reduced its number of named storms from its July forecast, from 25 down to 23. The 1991 to 2020 average is 14.4.

The Colorado State team still expects 12 hurricanes (the 1991-2020 average was 7.2), and is forecasting that six of those will reach major hurricane strength (Category 3, 4 or 5). The 1991-2020 average is 3.2.

This season’s previous storms, Hurricanes Beryl and Debby, as well as Tropical Storms Alberto and Chris, are included in the numbers. That means the team is calling for 10 more hurricanes between August and Nov. 30, when hurricane season ends.

Forecasters predicted that 2024 will have about 190% of the average hurricane activity from 1991–2020. Last year had about 120%.

The most impactful Atlantic basin hurricane of 2023 was Idalia, which made landfall as a Category 3 storm on Aug. 30, in the Big Bend region of Florida, causing eight fatalities.

The Colorado State team said it has higher-than-normal confidence that this season will be extremely busy. Several factors play a role.

2024 has been marked by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. All that warm water can fuel storm formation. Additionally, the warm water tends to create lower atmospheric pressure and an unstable atmosphere, which also is favorable for storms.

Wind shear, which can topple hurricanes, has been below normal in June and July, which usually indicates low shear in the peak of the season from August to October.

The El Niño, which can ramp up wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, has faded, and a potential La Niña could kick in in the coming month. That would likely weaken wind shear even more, and favor storm intensification.

Learning from history

So far, 2024’s ocean and atmosphere conditions look a lot like those of past active seasons, such as 1933, 1995, 2005, 2010 and 2020, said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the department of atmospheric science at CSU and lead author of the report.

The report also predicted that for the remainder of the season, the east coast of the U.S., including the Florida peninsula, has a 30% chance of a major hurricane making landfall. The full season average from 1880–2020 is 21%.

The Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville has a 38% chance of a major hurricane making landfall. The full season average for that region from 1880–2020 is 27%.

According to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, the storm will track west of the Tampa Bay region and track toward Florida’s Big Bend area, which is currently under a hurricane watch. The storm could be near or at hurricane strength by the time it makes landfall. The Tampa region is expected to see “considerable flash and urban flooding” through Wednesday as the storm passes, the Hurricane Center said.

Here’s the latest forecast path:

Debby’s center is expected to move off Georgia’s coast later Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday as Debby drifts offshore, before it moves inland over South Carolina on Thursday.

Debby’s record-setting rainfall will lead to coastal and urban flooding across a large portion of Florida through Wednesday and parts of the greater U.S. Southeast through Friday.

Here’s the latest forecast path:

Debby came ashore at 7 a.m. Monday as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds, just north of the tiny coastal town of Steinhatchee, in a sparsely populated section of the Big Bend region. It moved slowly across northern Florida into southeastern Georgia and is forecast to move off the coast of South Caroline by late Tuesday and Wednesday, then approach the state’s coast on Thursday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned that just because the storm is moving into Georgia, it doesn’t mean the state won’t continue to see threats as waterways north of the border fill up and flow south.

“It is a very saturating, wet storm,” he said during an afternoon briefing at the state’s emergency operations center. “When they crest and the water that’s going to come down from Georgia, it’s just something that we’re going to be on alert for not just throughout today, but for the next week.”

About 500 people were rescued from flooded homes in Sarasota, the Sarasota Police Department said Monday in a social media post.

“Essentially we’ve had twice the amount of the rain that was predicted for us to have,” Sarasota County Fire Chief David Rathbun said in a social media update.

Officials in Manatee County said in a news release that 186 people were rescued from flood waters.

The Levy County Sheriff’s Department in Florida reported that a 13-year-old boy was killed in a storm-related incident Monday morning when a large tree fell on a mobile home in Fanning Springs, about 40 miles east of where the storm made landfall.

A truck driver, a 64-year-old man, died on Interstate 75 in the Tampa area after he lost control of his tractor trailer, which flipped over a concrete wall and dangled over water before the cab dropped into the water below. In Dixie County, a 38-year-old woman and a 12-year-old boy died in a car crash on wet roads Sunday night. The Florida Highway Patrol said a 14-year-old boy who was a passenger was hospitalized with serious injuries.

A fifth Debby-related death was reported in south Georgia, where a 19-year-old man was killed when a tree fell onto a porch.

Images posted on social media by Cedar Key Fire Rescue early Monday showed floodwaters rising along the streets of the city, south of where the storm made landfall. Water was “coming in at a pretty heavy pace,” the post said. Nearly 200,000 customers remained without power in Florida and Georgia on Monday night, down from a peak of more than 350,000, according to PowerOutage.us and Georgia Electric Membership Corp.

Between Saturday morning and Monday morning, South Florida recorded maximum wind speeds ranging from 20 mph up to 53 mph associated with Debby, according to the National Weather Service Miami’s preliminary data. Rainfall totals ranged from just over an inch to as much as about 4 inches in South Florida.

As of 8 p.m. Monday, Debby was located about 50 miles east of Valdosta, Georgia. The storm was moving northeast at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

Facing ‘record-breaking’ rainfall

Debby’s slow movement is expected to cause “extremely large amounts” of rain over the southeastern states, NHC forecasters said.

Flash and urban flooding across portions of northern Florida could last through Friday morning and “historic rainfall” could flood parts of Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of the week, forecasters said.

The National Weather Service is forecasting 12 to 16 inches of rain in areas east of Tallahassee, 16 to 20 inches around Savannah, Georgia, and 20 to 30 inches south of Charleston, South Carolina.

“This potentially historic rainfall will likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding,” the hurricane center said Monday night.

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting 4 to 6 feet of storm surge along the Georgia and South Carolina coast as well, making for a potent flooding mix.

If Debby stalls over the coastal regions of Georgia and South Carolina, the area could get record-setting rain of up to 30 inches beginning Tuesday.

“There’s some really amazing rainfall totals being forecast and amazing in a bad way,” Michael Brennan, director of the hurricane center, said at a briefing. “That would be record-breaking rainfall associated with a tropical cyclone for both the states of Georgia and South Carolina if we got up to the 30-inch level.”

Officials in Savannah said the area could see a month’s worth of rain in four days if the system stalls over the region.

It’s going to be “a significant storm. The word historic cannot be underscored here,” Savannah Mayor Van. R. Johnson said during a news conference.

MAP: Here’s the latest forecast track of Hurricane Debby

Meanwhile, forecasters are also watching a disorganized tropical wave located north of Suriname and a few hundred miles to the east of the Windward Islands in the Atlantic that is headed toward the central and western Caribbean later this week. The environment in the western Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico where it could move later this week is more favorable for it to develop, the hurricane center said.

As of Tuesday, it was given a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours and 30% within the next seven days.

The next storm to form would be named Ernesto. Hurricane Beryl, the earliest recorded Category 5 ever in a hurricane season, killed dozens as it swept through the Caribbean, Mexico and Texas in late June and early July.

Earlier in July, Colorado State University experts updated their hurricane season forecast, calling for an even busier season than the already “extremely active” forecast they earlier predicted.

Staff writers Robin Webb and Victoria Ballard contributed to this report. Information from The Associated Press was used to supplement this news article.

Craig Fugate, a disaster-planning consultant who previously served as director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management and administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said financing and the availability of insurance will continue to be issues for some people trying to rebuild.

“I don’t think it’s going to slow down rebuilding, because it’s not really slowing things down in Fort Myers,” Fugate said, referring to rebuilding after Hurricane Ian slammed into the Fort Myers area in 2022. “What it’s doing is causing an affordable housing crisis … people like police officers, school teachers, administrators, they’re being priced out of your communities because they can’t either afford the cost of rebuilding, and if they can, they can’t afford the cost of insuring if they have to get a mortgage.”

Fugate, who spoke Tuesday to the Capital Tiger Bay Club in Tallahassee, served as director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management from 2001 to 2009, including during the devastating 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons. He then served nearly eight years as FEMA administrator.

Fugate became known for the Waffle House Index, an unofficial metric named after the restaurant chain. It gauged the severity of storms by whether Waffle House restaurants were open and what was available on menus. While it started in Florida, the index drew more national attention when Fugate and FEMA responded to a deadly tornado that hit Joplin, Mo., in 2011.

During his speech Tuesday, Fugate credited Florida officials for taking steps to address rising sea levels, despite controversial legislation this year that removed the phrase “climate change” from parts of laws.

“They’re actually one of the more progressive states in dealing with the impacts of climate change,” Fugate said. “If you look at the insurance ratings for building codes, Florida’s No. 1 or No. 2 every time. So, there’s this tendency, I think, to get caught up between what are called rhetoric and actions. And the rhetoric sometimes doesn’t always match what you’re doing.”

Fugate said Florida has been forward looking, noting the state’s Citizens Property Insurance is phasing in a flood-insurance requirement for policyholders, a lesson learned after Hurricane Ian caused massive flooding.

“They’re actually taking very smart, appropriate steps to address the issue of changing climate events,” Fugate said.

Fugate’s appearance came as the National Hurricane Center on Tuesday advised people in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. to keep an eye on the progress of a storm system moving in the Atlantic.

While it had not forecast rapid intensification, the hurricane center put Florida in the potential path of the system.

Dry air over the system on Tuesday was limiting rain, but conditions could lead to development of a tropical depression later this week over warm Atlantic waters. The chance of formation over the next week was upped from 50 percent on Monday to 60 percent Tuesday morning.

SPRING, Texas (AP) — As the temperature soared in the Houston-area home Janet Jarrett shared with her sister after losing electricity in Hurricane Beryl, she did everything she could to keep her 64-year-old sibling cool.

But on their fourth day without power, she awoke to hear Pamela Jarrett, who used a wheelchair and relied on a feeding tube, gasping for breath. Paramedics were called but she was pronounced dead at the hospital, with the medical examiner saying her death was caused by the heat.

“It’s so hard to know that she’s gone right now because this wasn’t supposed to happen to her,” Janet Jarrett said.

Almost two weeks after Beryl hit, heat-related deaths during the prolonged power outages have pushed the number of storm-related fatalities to at least 23 in Texas.

The combination of searing summer heat and residents unable to power up air conditioning in the days after the Category 1 storm made landfall on July 8 resulted in increasingly dangerous conditions for some in America’s fourth-largest city.

Beryl knocked out electricity to nearly 3 million homes and businesses at the height of the outages, which lasted days or much longer, and hospitals reported a spike in heat-related illnesses.

Power finally was restored to most by last week, after over a week of widespread outages. The slow pace in the Houston area put the region’s electric provider, CenterPoint Energy, under mounting scrutiny over whether it was sufficiently prepared.

While it may be weeks or even years before the full human toll of the storm in Texas is known, understanding that number helps plan for the future, experts say.

What is known about the deaths so far?

Just after the storm hit, bringing high winds and flooding, the deaths included people killed by falling trees and people who drowned when their vehicles became submerged in floodwaters. In the days after the storm passed, deaths included people who fell while cutting limbs on damaged trees and heat-related deaths.

Half of the deaths attributed to the storm in Harris County, where Houston is located, were heat related, according to the Harris County Institute of Forensic Sciences.

Jarrett, who has cared for her sister since she was injured in an attack six years ago, said her “sassy” sister had done everything from owning a vintage shop in Harlem, New York, to working as an artist.

“She had a big personality,” Jarrett said, adding that her sister had been in good health before they lost electricity at their Spring home.

When will a complete death toll be known?

With power outages and cleanup efforts still ongoing, the death toll likely will continue to climb.

Officials are still working to determine if some deaths that have already occurred should be considered storm related. But even when those numbers come in, getting a clear picture of the storm’s toll could take much more time.

Lara Anton, a spokesperson for the Texas Department of State Health Services, which uses death certificate data to identify storm-related deaths, estimated that it may not be until the end of July before they have even a preliminary count.

In the state’s vital statistics system, there is a prompt to indicate if the death was storm related and medical certifiers are asked to send additional information on how the death was related to the storm, Anton said.

Experts say that while a count of storm-related fatalities compiled from death certificates is useful, an analysis of excess deaths that occurred during and after the storm can give a more complete picture of the toll. For that, researchers compare the number of people who died in that period to how many would have been expected to die under normal conditions.

The excess death analysis helps count deaths that might have been overlooked, said Dr. Lynn Goldman, dean of the Milken Institute School of Public Health at George Washington University.

What do different toll numbers tell us?

Both the approach of counting the death certificates and calculating the excess deaths have their own benefits when it comes to storms, said Gregory Wellenius, director of the Boston University School of Public Health’s Center for Climate and Health.

The excess death analysis gives a better estimate of the total number of people killed, so it’s useful for public health and emergency management planning in addition to assessing the impact of climate change, he said.

But it “doesn’t tell you who,” he said, and understanding the individual circumstances of storm deaths is important in helping to show what puts individual people at risk.

“If I just tell you 200 people died, it doesn’t tell you that story of what went wrong for these people, which teaches us something about what hopefully can we do better to prepare or help people prepare in the future,” Wellenius said. ___

Stengle reported from Dallas. Sean Murphy contributed to this report from Oklahoma City.

The weather service even urged safety for Colombia-Argentina fans attending Sunday’s Copa America final at 8 p.m. at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. “Stay weather aware, better to be safe than offsides (sic),” the NWS posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, adding a soccer ball emoji.

“Feels-like temps are already in the 100s as of 10am,” the weather service posted on X, formerly Twitter, Sunday morning.

The heat advisory for the tri-county area, which also includes mainland Monroe County, lasts through 6 p.m. Sunday and warns that “feels-like” temperatures could peak as high as 110 degrees. The Sunday high was about 91 degrees.

The risk of rain in Broward and Palm Beach is about 30% through Sunday evening, with heat indices at 108 degrees in Fort Lauderdale, 109 in West Palm Beach, and 110 near Palm Beach Gardens. The weather service said overnight temperatures in both counties will cool to the lower 80s, offering slight relief from the heat.

Yet the scorching heat of the past two months will once again rebound throughout this week and stay that way. Similar “feels-like” heat above 100 will continue Monday, and showers and thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon with a 60% chance of rain in Broward. In Palm Beach, the chance of rain is 40%.

The heat index in Broward and Palm Beach should remain in the triple digits at least through Thursday afternoon, the weather service said. Under those conditions, those outside should wear light or loose-fitting clothes, a hat, sunscreen, use an umbrella for shade and stay hydrated.