Voters in Tuesday’s Democratic primary are the ones who will likely decide whether a changing of the guard at the Broward Sheriff’s Office is necessary, or a second full term for Tony is warranted. The Republican Party did not put up a candidate for November, leaving an independent candidate, BSO retiree Charles Whatley, as the lone challenger for the November general election..

The Sheriff’s Office is a far-flung enterprise that employs about 5,500 law enforcement, fire department and medical services personnel. It contracts public safety services to a dozen of Broward’s 31 towns and cities. It provides protection and security for Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, county courthouses and Port Everglades, the massive seaport. It also operates a forensics unit and real-time crime center that received a $1.5 federal million grant this year.

Challenging the incumbent are:

• Steven “Steve” Geller served 28 years with Plantation Police as a patrol officer, school resource officer, major case detective and captain, supervising internal affairs and other units. After retiring in 2018, he joined the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, where he was involved in use-of-force investigations of local police officers. Geller, 55, holds a bachelor’s degree in psychology and a minor in criminal justice from the State University of New York, Albany, and a master’s in public administration from Florida Atlantic University. (Geller is not to be confused with long-time County Commissioner Steve Geller, who is also a former state legislator.)
• David Howard is a West Palm Beach police retiree who most recently served as Pembroke Park’s police chief for nearly three years after starting the department from scratch. He served nearly three decades in West Palm Beach, retiring as a watch commander. A U.S. Air Force retiree with 30 years of active and reserve service, he spent a year as a first officer with Silver Airways, the South Florida-based regional airline.
• Alvin Pollock is a retired BSO colonel who served in a variety of capacities through 40 years with the office, finishing his career as third in command. He oversaw the Department of Law Enforcement and all patrol support services and was a watch commander overseeing patrol functions and operations. As courthouse commander, he was responsible for security and operations within the county’s  courthouses. He also served as a road patrol sergeant who supervised deputies, as a detective with the organized crime task force, and as a deputy sheriff.

Rollercoaster term

To say that Tony is vulnerable to a challenge is an understatement. Appointed as the county’s top law enforcement officer by Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2019 to replace Scott Israel, who was removed from office, the sheriff has been on a rollercoaster ride this year.

Tony has taken a variety of hits for cost overruns during the building of a new $74 million training center, complaints from client cities that they’re being charged too much, and criticism for 21 jail deaths over four years and episodes involving two pregnant women who gave birth while incarcerated.

Nearly a year ago, the agency was rocked by the crash of an aging fire rescue helicopter that took the lives of its pilot and a civilian on the ground in Pompano Beach. A public argument ensued between the sheriff and county commissioners over maintenance and the pace and funding of fleet modernization.

Earlier this summer, Tony pitched Broward County commissioners a 2024-25 fiscal year budget of $1.53 billion, a 48% increase. The request for the agency’s first billion dollar-plus budget was roundly panned by commissioners, who pointed out that such an outlay would trigger a 33% increase in property taxes.

Tony argued he needs more money to hire more people to guard and operate the county’s detention centers, patrol roads, and provide security at the burgeoning international airport from a new substation. He also argued that higher pay is needed to retain and recruit staff and keep his office competitive with other agencies that are in pursuit of the same law enforcement talent.

“Broward County’s population has increased almost 13% since 2010 and is estimated to grow to over 2 million by 2030,” he wrote in his formal budget request. “This unprecedented growth has increased the need for better tools and increased personnel to provide public safety services.”

The final word on the budget will come in September.

This past spring, an administrative law judge recommended that the sheriff should receive a written reprimand and be required to undergo ethics training after concluding that Tony violated state law by failing to disclose in 2019 that his driver’s license had previously been suspended. Judge Robert L. Kilbride also said Tony should be placed on “probationary status” for 18 months.

A hearing on the recommendations scheduled for Thursday by the Criminal Justice Standards and Training Commission, an arm of the Florida Department of Law Enforcement, has been postponed, according to a public agenda reviewed by the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

Critiques

Given the opportunity, the three challengers served up a variety of critiques when asked in a Sun Sentinel candidates’ questionnaire to evaluate Tony’s first term. The sheriff declined to engage in the exercise.

“Sheriff Gregory Tony’s tenure as the head of the Broward Sheriff’s Office (BSO) has been fraught with controversy and allegations of deception,” Geller said. “From the very beginning, Tony has been under intense scrutiny due to a lack of transparency. There are serious concerns about his integrity, particularly in relation to his failure to disclose critical information about his past, including an incident during his adolescence where he shot and killed a man. This information was not revealed during his appointment process, despite specific questions about any past arrests.

“What sets me apart as the best candidate is my unwavering commitment to honesty, integrity and ethical standards,” Geller said, adding that he has “maintained an impeccable record throughout my career.“ He said he never has faced termination, “been asked to resign, or faced any disciplinary action.”

Pollock, the retired colonel, took a sharp pencil to Tony’s public safety track record, which he said “has been marked by significant controversy and disapproval both organizationally and county-wide. It is not my assessment but the public’s assessment that is important.

“The public is clearly unsatisfied with public safety provided by BSO. Recently, Lauderdale Lakes and Pompano Beach called on Tony numerous times for a meeting regarding increasing violent crime,” Pollock wrote. “Tony’s response, he didn’t want to ‘over police’ the community. The public is being underserved and only gets lip service after pleading with BSO for help.”

He also took note of the deaths in Broward’s jails, as well as the women giving birth while incarcerated, which he called “completely unacceptable.”

“Public safety is compromised under Tony’s direction due to his top-heavy command structure, ineffective leadership, lack of accountability, and mishandling of BSO’s budget,” he added.

Howard said he would offer a “responsible and balanced budget proposal” for public safety needs that would not place “an undue financial burden on residents.”

He listed violent crime, gang activity, and staffing shortages in corrections as priorities, and said he’d conduct a “thorough review of existing programs and initiatives.” and develop a “multi-year” strategic spending plan.

“I would identify and eliminate any redundancies or inefficiencies to free up funds for more pressing needs,” he wrote.

Strong support for the incumbent

Despite the challengers’ efforts, Tony commands a level of support that appears to collectively outstrip the dollars and other backing garnered by his opponents.

State campaign records show Tony’s  Broward First PAC, which was formed several years ago, had collected more than $2.6 million through the most recent reporting period. It’s received contributions from large law firms, wealth managers, entrepreneurs, as well as the Seminole Tribe of Florida, which gave $30,000 last spring.  The money in his campaign fund also exceeds his opponents’ funds.

Endorsements have arrived from large groups such as the Broward County AFL-CIO and The Hispanic Vote PAC. An endorsement from the Dolphin Democrats, though, went to Geller.

“To be honest with you he is very articulate; he came across with a lot of passion,” said Andy Madtes, president of the umbrella labor union group. “I don’t have any skin in the game here. He came across as someone who really wants to change the trajectory of the agency.”

Sheriff uses image of VP Harris in mailer to Democratic primary voters, funded partly by Republican DeSantis allies

Madtes said the AFL-CIO screening and endorsement process normally involves member unions casting votes. But for the sheriff’s race, Madtes said, “we deferred to the unions that work directly with the sheriff’s office because they have more of an interaction.”

“It just turned out the unions … feel he’s trying to look out for the workers,” he added. “They think he’s done a decent job.”

Tony has picked his spots when discussing issues publicly. He declined to participate in candidate interviews with the Sun Sentinel editorial board  (which endorsed Geller) as well as a forum hosted by the Broward League of Women Voters.

Besides the visit with the Broward AFL-CIO, he also spoke with Hispanic Vote.

Eric Johnson, one of Tony’s campaign consultants, told the South Florida Sun Sentinel that his client prefers not to discuss flashpoints such as the budget request and the driver’s license case.

“We’ve kept the campaign very positive on his record for public safety and emergency response,” Johnson said.

“Crime is down in Broward County,” he added. “Emergency response times are faster. And ultimately next Tuesday the voters will make a determination on his record as sheriff, and we are confident he will have an overwhelming victory.”

A mailer from Tony’s PAC features a picture of him with Harris, paired with a quote from former President Barack Obama.

It’s notable for the speed. The mailer from the Broward First PAC arrived in Democratic voters’ mailboxes in Broward County on Friday, just 20 days after Harris entered the presidential race when President Joe Biden ended his campaign for a second term.

Harris has generated enormous excitement among Democratic voters — exactly the supporters he needs in the four-way primary for sheriff. (A Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday found that 94% of likely Democratic voters in the state said they’d vote Harris for president).

The winner of the Democratic primary for sheriff — Tony, Steve Geller, David Howard or Al Pollock — faces only nominal opposition from an independent candidate in November, and is virtually certain to win the general election.

The photo of the sheriff in uniform standing next to the vice president was taken in March, on the day Harris toured the site of the Marjory Stoneman Douglas mass shooting to discuss gun-violence prevention efforts. The photo was posted months ago on Tony’s Instagram page.

The Broward First mailer is one of many about the sheriff’s race landing in Democratic voters’ mailboxes from candidates and their associated political committees.

The mailing featuring Harris is careful. It doesn’t state that there’s an endorsement of Tony from Harris or Obama.

Its theme is “change,” given that Harris would be the nation’s first woman president and the first with parents who were from Jamaica and India. It reminds voters that Tony changed the agency as “the first African American to serve as Broward County’s sheriff.”

In case all that’s too subtle, the Obama quote states, “We are the change we seek.”

There’s an ironic element to Tony’s Broward First committee paying for a mailer featuring Harris.

Some of the financial muscle behind Broward First comes from Republicans close to Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is not exactly a fan of the Democratic presidential nominee. Example of a DeSantis comment: “Her tenure as VP has been disastrous.”

Tony is sheriff because of DeSantis, and the Stoneman Douglas massacre.

DeSantis appointed Tony in 2019 after he suspended previous Sheriff Scott Israel. The governor charged Israel with incompetence and neglect of duty in connection with the 2018 school massacre, in which 17 people were killed and 17 injured, and the 2017 mass shooting at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport, in which five people were killed and six injured.

In 2020, when Tony ran and won a full term as sheriff, his political action committee Broward First got fundraising help from big-name Republican DeSantis allies. As he geared up for the 2024 election, the Republican heavyweights close to the governor again helped raise money for Broward First.

Since Broward First geared up its fundraising for this year’s campaign in the spring of last year, it has raised $820,000. About two-thirds came during the second six months of 2023.

Voters have received some negative information about Tony as well. Democrats received an anti-Tony, pro-Geller mailer from a committee called “Honesty and Integrity for Broward Citizens.”

“Gregory Tony is a proven liar who is not fit to serve,” it declares above a picture of the incumbent.

The flip side declares that “Our current Sheriff has lied and broken the rules time and time again.”

The beneficiary of the mailer, Geller, is shown in a picture from his time in the Plantation Police Department and praised as a candidate of “Integrity. Leadership. Experience.”

And it attempts to remind voters of Tony’s links to DeSantis including a news headline when DeSantis called Tony a favorite Democrat. It came from December 2023, when DeSantis was seeking the Republican presidential nomination. Asked to name his favorite Democrat in Florida during a CNN town hall, he said Tony was one of the “good ones.”

The committee has taken in $172,000, according to reports filed with the Florida Division of Elections. All but $7,000 came via four contributions on July 6 and July 10, from Mark Groban, a family friend, of Rockville, Md.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

Trump will meet the press at 4:30 p.m. EDT as he steps up his criticism of Vice President Kamala Harris for not holding a news conference or sitting down for interviews since President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and endorsed her to replace him.

The vice president has barely engaged with reporters since becoming the Democratic nominee, though she travels with journalists aboard Air Force Two and sometimes answers shouted questions while boarding or leaving the plane for campaign stops.

In one brief interaction last week, she told reporters she wants “to get an interview together by the end of the month.”

Trump on Wednesday made little effort to stay on message at a rally in North Carolina that his campaign billed as a big economic address, mixing pledges to slash energy prices and “unleash economic abundance” with familiar off-script tangents.

He aired his frustration over the Democrats swapping the vice president in place of Biden at the top of their presidential ticket. He repeatedly denigrated San Francisco, where Harris was once the district attorney, as “unlivable” and went after his rival in deeply personal terms, questioning her intelligence, saying she has “the laugh of a crazy person” and musing that Democrats were being “politically correct” in trying to elevate the first Black woman and person of south Asian descent to serve as vice president.

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that Americans are more likely to trust Trump over Harris when it comes to handling the economy and immigration, issues that he has put at the center of his case for returning to the White House.

In his news conference last week, Trump taunted his rival, boasted of his crowd on Jan. 6, 2021, and lashed out at questions about the enthusiasm Harris’ campaign has been generating. He spoke for more than an hour and made a number of false and misleading claims.

Thursday’s news conference will be livestreamed on apnews.com.

This means that regardless of political party affiliation, if a registered voter lives in either District 1 or District 5, they may vote for one of the candidates.

If a candidate in either race receives more than 50% of the votes, they automatically secure a win. If no one gets more than 50%, then the two candidates with the most votes will advance to the November election.

Once elected, the two new board members will serve four-year terms and receive a salary of $53,407. Issues that bubbled to the surface during campaigning include school safety measures, such metal detectors, teacher pay, the state’s new law mandating later start times and how to maintain an A-rating.

Here’s what to know about each race and candidate.

District 1

District 1, which represents the northern part of the county with cities including Palm Beach Gardens, Jupiter and Tequesta, is currently represented by Barbara McQuinn.

McQuinn will be replaced by either Matthew Jay Lane, Page Lewis or Francesca Wernisch.

Lane, 69, is a former Palm Beach Gardens city councilmember with a family and divorce law firm. According to his Sun Sentinel questionnaire, his priorities are ensuring teachers get paid enough and that students learn “the fundamentals.”

Lewis, 57, currently helps children learn how to read and believes the district’s success relies on students having a firm grasp on the essentials of reading, writing and arithmetic, according to her questionnaire.

Wernisch, 39, has young children currently in the school district and similarly advocates for “early learning” and improving teacher recruitment and professional development.

District 5

The District 5 race, which includes all the schools in Boca Raton and West Boca, is one of the county’s most crowded races with five candidates vying for the spot.

The winner will replace Frank Barbieri Jr., who has served in Seat 5 since 2008.

Gloria Branch, 56, is a more than 40-year Boca Raton resident and current substitute teacher with a desire to “shed the remnants of equity and woke ideology,” according to her questionnaire, and invest resources in teacher pay and the classroom.

Mindy Koch, 71, has spent more than 40 years either in teaching, administration or as a special education coordinator. According to her questionnaire, she wants the district to home in on reading and math for pre-K through third-grade students.

Mike Letsky, 47, is the founder of FutureGen Robotics. He said he wants students to have more in-person instruction and believes there are better ways to make schools safer, such as installing cameras with artificial intelligence.

Suzanne Page, 73, crafted a five-step educational reform plan outlined on her website that includes detailed steps for elementary, middle, high school students and teachers.

Charman Postel, 37, is a consultant and substitute teacher with four children currently attending school in the district. To keep the district’s A rating, Postel said in her questionnaire she would advocate for “curriculum enhancements, professional development for teachers and increased support.”

Voting

Early voting will be available until 7 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 18, then Election Day is Tuesday, Aug. 20. The general election will take place on Nov. 5.

Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections Wendy Sartory Link welcomed Trump at the main office in West Palm Beach, and supervisor of elections spokeswoman Alison Novoa said Trump’s visit went smoothly.

Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, cast his early vote before traveling to Asheville, North Carolina, for a campaign rally. He told reporters he would be focusing his speech at the rally on the economy. He’s criticized the Biden administration for the rampant inflation, but a report Wednesday showed continuing signs that inflation is slowing down.

When asked about the FBI’s investigation into the alleged hacking of his campaign, Trump accused Iran of being behind it.

“They are looking at it, and they are doing it very professionally,” he said. “It looks like it’s Iran doing it. And the reason is because I was strong in Iran, and I was protecting people in the Middle East, and maybe they aren’t so happy about that.”

Trump said he did not want to say whether the information came from the FBI.

Early voting has been underway in Palm Beach and Broward counties for the Florida primary and nonpartisan races. The races include those for sheriff, School Board members, judges and supervisor of elections for both Broward and Palm Beach counties.

Early voting is being held through 7 p.m. Sunday, Aug. 18. A photo ID is required to cast a vote. Tuesday, Aug. 20, is Election Day.

You can find your precinct location on the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections website, votepalmbeach.gov. Similarly, the Broward County Supervisor of Elections website, browardvotes.gov, also contains precinct information.

Information from The Associated Press was used to supplement this news article. 

A Wellington resident named John Saroka filed the complaint on Aug. 9, asking that the commission investigate Diaz less than two weeks away from the primary, according to a copy of the complaint reviewed by the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Saroka did not return a voicemail Wednesday morning.

Diaz listed his net worth as $1,348,000 on his qualifying Form 6, the complaint points out. But the form lists his assets as totaling only $338,000: $138,000 in household goods and effects, $50,000 in cash, and a $150,000 pension. All sheriff candidates are required to file the Form 6 with the Florida Commission on Ethics by July 1 in order to qualify for office.

“I do not believe Candidate Diaz was being fully candid with the citizens of Palm Beach County when he filed his Form 6,” Saroka wrote. “Therefore, I humbly request that the Commission on Ethics investigate this matter.”

Lynn Blais, a spokesperson for the commission, said she could not confirm or deny the existence of the complaint because complaints do not become public record until a certain stage in the investigation.

Diaz also reported $375,000 in liabilities on the form, which was filed June 11. Candidates are supposed to calculate their net worth by subtracting their total liabilities from their total assets, according to detailed instructions posted on the commission’s website.

Diaz told the South Florida Sun Sentinel Wednesday that he did not overestimate his net worth, but rather it is likely much higher than what he reported on the form. He said that he had not realized he needed to list assets such as over a million dollars in property, a $300,000 boat, a truck, a car, a horse trailer, and a couple hundred thousand in stocks.

“I filled it out to the best of my ability,” Diaz said of the form. “I did not overestimate my net worth in any shape or form. If anything, I was extremely conservative about it … the only findings they’re gonna find is my net worth is actually higher.”

In an email to the South Florida Sun Sentinel, Diaz’s wife compiled assets not mentioned in the filing, including a tractor, a side-by-side, jewelry, designer handbags, $7,000 worth of firearms, and two homes, one he owns with his wife in Highlands County, which he listed as worth $950,000, though property appraiser records say its market value is close to $700,000, and another he owns with his son in Loxahatchee that he listed as worth $550,000 though property appraiser records say its market value is about $400,000.

The email also lists liens on both homes worth $530,000 as well as $20,000 on a Ford F250 truck, more than the $375,000 reported in the filing. Ultimately, the total assets in the email come out to just under $2.5 million, and about $1.9 million when subtracting liabilities.

Diaz said that no one from the state contacted him about his form, so he thought it was correct; he found out about the complaint only because the Palm Beach Post asked him about it.

He never heard from anyone because the Commission on Ethics does not review candidates’ financial disclosure forms to verify their accuracy, according to Blais. The commission investigates disclosures only when a complaint is filed.

“When disclosure forms are filed, we do not audit them in any way,” Blais said. “Someone has to file a complaint alleging someone failed to report something or misreported something. Only upon receipt of a complaint do we look into it.”

If the commission is reviewing the complaint, it will not be able to reach any conclusion before the primary on Aug. 20, because the next meeting is set for Sept. 13.

“That would be next opportunity for anything to be heard,” Blais said.

Diaz is facing Michael Gauger, former chief deputy of the Sheriff’s Office, in the Republican primary on Tuesday. The winner of the primary will face off against the Democrat candidate, either incumbent Sheriff Ric Bradshaw or his challenger, Alex Freeman, in November.

Diaz worked in the Palm Beach County Sheriff’s Office for 27 years before leaving, achieving the rank of captain. He later served as deputy chief of the Bartow Police Department.

The Florida Atlantic University poll shows Trump leading Harris 50% to 47% among likely voters in the state. Just 2% said they were undecided and 1% said they’d vote for another candidate.

The 3-point Trump advantage is half the lead he had in June, the last time FAU polled in the state. Trump had a 6-point advantage among likely voters, 49% to 43%, when President Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate two months ago.

The results of the Florida survey released Wednesday, which are similar to what’s been showing up in other national and state specific polls, demonstrate how much the trajectory of the presidential race has been upended since July 21, when Biden ended his campaign for reelection.

“This is consistent with the pattern that we’ve been seeing since Vice President Harris came into the race, that she’s consolidated a lot of the traditional Democratic groups and they’ve turned this into a very competitive race,” Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist, said in a phone interview.

Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.

Another FAU political scientist, Dukhong Kim said in a statement that the results show that “Harris restores the traditional base of the Democratic Party, which includes women, minorities, younger voters, and Democratic Party identifiers.”  Trump, he said, maintains his own established base.”

The return of the Democratic base makes the contest  more competitive, Wagner said, even though the state has been trending more Republican.

When a larger sample of “all voters” as opposed to “likely voters” is considered, there’s also a 3-point difference. Among all Florida voters, the poll found Trump 49% and Harris 46%, with 2% preferring another candidate and 3% undecided.

Kennedy

The overall parameters of the Florida contest change slightly when factoring in the third-party candidacy of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,  the anti-vaccine activist and son of the assassinated U.S. senator.

When he’s in the mix, Trump has 47% of likely voters, Harris has 45% and Kennedy has 5%.

“It’s a tighter race with RFK Jr.,” Wagner said. “RFK Jr. at least for now seems to be hurting former President Trump.”

The FAU results are in line with a Suffolk University/USA TODAY/WSVN-Ch. 7 poll of likely Florida voters released Tuesday. Trump had 47%, Harris had 42% and Kennedy had 5%. The Suffolk survey was conducted via phone from Aug. 7 to Aug. 11.

In FAU’s previous Florida poll in June, a three-way race found Trump had 45% of likely voters to 40% for Biden and 8% for Kennedy.

Gender, age

There’s a sizable gender gap among likely voters, with women much more likely to prefer Harris and men much more likely to prefer Trump.

Women: Harris had support of 53% of women, 10 percentage points higher than Trump’s support among women.

Men: Trump had the support of 56% of men, 16 percentage points higher than Harris’ support among men.

Younger: Among voters under age 50, Harris led Trump 50% to 44%.

Older: Among voters 50 and older, Trump led Harris 53% to 44%.

Partisan divide

More than nine in 10 Democrats and Republicans supported their party’s nominee, with 94% of Democrats for Harris and 93% of Republicans for Trump.

Independents were closely divided, but slightly favored Harris, 48% to 43%.

Another illustration of the depth of the partisan divide was shown in voters’ responses to the selection of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota as the Democratic nominee for vice president.

Among all voters, the choice had approval of 44% and disapproval of 33%, with the rest neither approving nor disapproving.

But the breakdowns by party showed deep division. Among Democrats, 70% strongly approved of the choice and 1% strongly disapproved. Among Republicans 43% strongly disapproved and 8% strongly approved.

Independents were more evenly split, with 21% strongly approving and 16% strongly disapproving.

Wagner said the Walz results “illustrate how much of what we see and perceive today is just through a partisan lens. So many people have formed an opinion on someone who was largely unknown about a week ago.”

Senate race

The poll found a close race between U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and his likely challenger, former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

(Mucarsel-Powell, who has the support of virtually the entire Democratic Party establishment, is almost certain to emerge as the winner of the Aug. 20 party primary.)

In a matchup between the two, Scott has 47% of likely voters to 43% for Mucarsel-Powell. Another 6% said they were undecided and 3% said they supported another candidate.

The June FAU poll had Scott at 45% to Mucarsel-Powell’s 43%.

The latest Senate numbers showed predictable patterns: Mucarsel-Powell had more support among younger voters and Scott had more support among older voters. The Democrat had more support among women and Scott had more support among men.

Democrats and Republicans overwhelmingly (88% for each party) supported their party’s candidate. Among independents there was a tie at 41%.

“Scott is winning, but it’s within range that a surge of Democratic voters could make that a nail biter,” Wagner said.

Ultimately, Wagner said, the results in the presidential and Senate races will depend on which side turns out its voters.

“Because of the way that the state has trended, if both bases come out, then Republicans are likely going to be good, and I think that’s what you see in our numbers. It’s tighter, but it is still a Republican-leaning state. That would be good for Senator Scott and former President Trump.”

Florida poll finds abortion, marijuana amendments falling short of passage

Florida in play?

Political analysts have seen Trump as the overwhelming favorite to win Florida’s 30 electoral votes, more than 10% of the 270 needed to win the presidency. In 2020, Trump won Florida by 3.3 percentage points.

The poll, which is a snapshot taken early in the Harris candidacy, doesn’t mean Florida is in play.

“It’s possible if the race continues the trajectory it’s on. However, it’s still a bit early to make the determination, and we’ll have to see how the race progresses. If in the next few weeks there are more surveys that show Florida is tight, then it’s possible,” Wagner said.

Still, he said, the poll results are “a warning sign for the Trump campaign.”

Harris, now the Democratic nominee, has enjoyed a bonanza of publicity, and drawn enormous crowds at rallies in critical battleground states. Trump’s campaign, meanwhile, hasn’t yet implemented a strategy to counter the changed political environment.

Trump has spent lots of time at his Mar-a-Lago club and home in Palm Beach and hasn’t been doing many big, in-person rallies recently in battleground states. He held a rally in overwhelmingly Republican Montana on Friday, and is scheduled to speak about the economy Wednesday in North Carolina and headline a rally in battleground Pennsylvania on Saturday.

“It’s been a positive couple of weeks for the Democratic ticket. That could be a high water mark or this could be a trend. It’s hard to know in the moment,” Wagner said. “What really happened here is Harris has consolidated and brought a wavering Democratic coalition back, which gets you to where we’ve been for a while, which is an evenly divided country.”

Democrats had 558,272 more registered voters than the Republicans immediately after the 2012 election, when then-President Barack Obama won the state on his way to winning a second term and then-U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla, won reelection.

The official state tally of registered voters shows that as of July 22, there were 994,847 more registered Republicans than Democrats in Florida. (Examining totals from each of the state’s county supervisor of elections, the Fresh Take Florida news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications estimated that the Republican advantage hit 1 million on Sunday.)

Even if Harris doesn’t win the state, a better than expected performance, propelled by voter enthusiasm for the new Democratic ticket, could help her party by getting more voters to the polls who might then vote for more Democratic candidates for lower level offices.

Fine print

The poll of 1,055 Florida registered voters was conducted Aug. 10 and 11 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab.

The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points.

However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

A Florida Atlantic University poll released Wednesday found both falling short of the 60% required for passage. A Suffolk University poll also found the abortion amendment short of hitting the threshold, and the marijuana question with slightly more than it needs.

Abortion: FAU found 56% of voters surveyed support and 21% oppose Amendment 4, which would enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution. The Suffolk/USA TODAY/WSVN-Ch. 7 poll reported 58% support and 35% opposed.

Marijuana: FAU found 56% support and 29% oppose Amendment 3, which would legalize recreational marijuana for people age 21 and older. Suffolk reported 63% in favor and 33% opposed.

There are still more than enough voters who said they didn’t know — 23% on the abortion question and 15% on the marijuana question in the Florida Atlantic University poll — that passage is possible. Voters will be bombarded with extensive pro and con campaigns on both questions through the fall.

Conflicting polls

So how is it that two Florida polls released on the same day appear contradictory?

(A third Florida poll, released 16 days ago, had different results as well. A University of North Florida poll found greater support (69% to 23%) for the abortion rights amendment and for the marijuana referendum (64% to 31%).

It involves the nature of polling.

People who produce high-quality public opinion polls always point out that their surveys are snapshots of what people say at the time they’re asked. The timing of when polls are being taken — they describe it as being “in the field” — can make a difference.

Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab: 1,055 Florida registered voters, was conducted Aug. 10 and 11.

Suffolk University/USA TODAY/WSVN-Ch. 7: 500 likely Florida general election voters, was conducted between Aug. 7 and Aug. 11.

University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab: 774 registered voters, from July 24 to July 27.

In a statement about FAU’s results, political scientist Luzmarina Garcia noted the difference since its last poll on the amendments in the spring. “These results reflect a growing awareness of the constitutional amendments. In April, FAU polled on both initiatives and at that time these measures had 49% approval, which shows a gain of 7 (percentage points) over the last four months.”

The methods pollsters use can make a difference in the nature of the sample.

Pollsters use a range of techniques, some involving live callers to phone lines, others online surveys, others automated calls to phone lines and others use an online component. Sometimes they use a combination of methods to try to reach people, especially younger voters, who may be less inclined to answer their phones.

FAU’s survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters.

Suffolk’s survey used live telephone interviews.

UNF’s survey used an online panel, in which voters were contacted by text message and asked to complete the survey, and from live callers.

Pollsters also make adjustments to weight the samples. If, for example, the survey doesn’t have enough people of a certain demographic group to reflect the total population, they’ll make a statistical adjustment so the total sample more accurately represents the entire population.

And polling isn’t precise. The margin of error indicates the range in which pollsters expect the results to be accurate most of the time.

Candidate A has 54% and Candidate B has 46% and the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points, A and B could be tied at 50% each. Or, it could be 58-42.

The FAU poll has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Suffolk said its margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

UNF reported a margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The margin of error refers to the full poll. However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.

Abortion

The Florida Atlantic University poll found the abortion rights amendment is supported by a majority of every group surveyed — except Republicans.

Republicans were evenly divided, with 35% supporting and 35% opposing the amendment.

Democrats, with 80% in support and 8% opposed, favor the amendment more than any other group.

Independents are in favor, 59% to 15%.

Democrats were far more likely to have made up their minds. Just 12% of Democrats said they didn’t know how they would vote, compared to 27% of independents and 30% of Republicans.

Women were more likely than men to support the abortion rights amendment.

Women support it 59% to 19%, a 40-percentage point advantage.

Men support it 54% to 24%, a 30-point advantage.

And voters under age 50 were more likely to support the proposed amendment (62%) than voters 50 and older (52%.)

With Harris in race, poll shows closer contest in Florida. Trump now leads by 3 points.

Marijuana

The FAU survey shows a big age divide on the referendum that would allow recreational use of marijuana under state law by adults.

Voters younger than age 50 favor it, 69% to 20% — a difference of 49 percentage points, FAU reported.

Voters 50 and older support it more narrowly, 47% to 36%, a difference of 11 points.

There’s no difference based on gender, with 56% of men and 56% of women supporting legalization.

There is, however, a significant partisan divide.

Democrats favor the marijuana amendment 74% to 15%.

Independents favor it 63% to 22%.

Republican support is much lower at 37%, with 46% opposed.

“If they’re going to hit that 60%, the supporters of the amendment are probably going to have to reach a few more Republicans or have a particularly Democratic-leaning electorate, which sees a challenge in a presidential election year,” said Kevin Wagner, a Florida Atlantic University political scientist.

Wagner is also co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll.

Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.

ASHEVILLE, N.C. (AP) — Donald Trump made little effort to stay on message Wednesday at a rally in North Carolina that his campaign billed as a big economic address, mixing pledges to slash energy prices and “unleash economic abundance” with familiar off-script tangents on Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ laugh, the mechanics of wind energy and President Joe Biden’s son.

The 75-minute speech featured a litany of broad policy ideas and even grander promises to end inflation, bolster already record-level U.S. energy production and raise Americans’ standard of living. But those pronouncements were often lost in the former president’s typically freewheeling, grievance-laden style that has made it difficult for him to answer the enthusiasm of Harris’ nascent campaign.

Trump aired his frustration over Democrats swapping the vice president in place of Biden at the top of their presidential ticket. He repeatedly denigrated San Francisco, where Harris was once the district attorney, as “unlivable” and went after his rival in deeply personal terms, questioning her intelligence, saying she has “the laugh of a crazy person” and musing that Democrats were being “politically correct” in trying to elevate the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to serve as vice president.

“You know why she hasn’t done an interview? She’s not smart. She’s not intelligent. And we’ve gone through enough of that with this guy, Crooked Joe,” Trump said, using the nickname he often uses for Biden.

When he was focusing on policy, Trump pledged to end “job-killing regulations,” roll back Biden-era restrictions on fossil fuel production and investments in green energy, instruct Cabinet members to use “every tool” to “defeat inflation” within the first year of a second term and end all taxes on Social Security benefits and income classified as tips.

He promised economic growth so abundant that “we will pay off all our debt,” similar to a pledge he made in 2016 before the national debt ballooned during his presidency. He pledged to lower Americans’ energy costs by “50 to 70%” within 12 months, or a “maximum 18 months.” But he immediately hedged: “If it doesn’t work out, you’ll say, ‘oh well, I voted for him and he still got it down a lot.’”

At one point, Trump seemed even to question the purpose of giving a speech ostensibly devoted to the economy. “They wanted to do a speech on the economy,” he riffed, apparently referring to his campaign aides. “They say it’s the most important subject. I’m not sure it is.”

Trump spoke at Harrah’s Cherokee Center, an auditorium in downtown Asheville, with his podium flanked by more than a dozen American flags and custom backdrops that read: “No tax on Social Security” and “No tax on tips” — a made-for-TV setup to project the policy heft his campaign wanted Trump to convey.

Republicans had been looking for him to focus more on the economy than the scattershot arguments and attacks he has made on Harris since Democrats shifted to her as their presidential nominee. Twice in the past week, Trump has virtually bypassed such opportunities, first in an hourlong news conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, then in a 2 1/2-hour conversation on the social media platform X with CEO Elon Musk.

When he stayed on script Wednesday, Trump contrasted the current economy with his own presidency, asking, “Is anything less expensive under Kamala Harris and Crooked Joe?”

“Kamala has declared that tackling inflation will be a ‘Day One priority’ for her,” Trump said. “But Day One for Kamala was 3 1/2 years ago. Why hasn’t she done it?”

Yet throughout his speech, Trump ping-ponged between his prepared remarks and familiar attacks — deviating from the teleprompter in the middle of explaining a new economic promise when something triggered another thought. He ticked through prepared remarks crisply and quickly. The rest was his more freewheeling style, punctuated with hand gestures and hyperbole.

More than once, he jumped from a policy contrast with Harris to taking another swipe at her hometown of San Francisco. He also noted several times that it was Biden, not Harris, who earned votes from Democratic primary voters. During a section of his speech on energy, he slipped in an apparent dig at Hunter Biden, the president’s son, and his “laptop from hell.”

Trump sought to connect his emphasis on the border and immigration policy to the economy. He repeated his dubious claim that the influx would strain Social Security and Medicare to the point of collapse. He bemoaned the taxpayer money being spent on housing migrants in some U.S. cities, including his native New York. But most of the time he spent on immigration was the same broadsides about immigrants and violent crime that have been a staple of Trump’s speeches since 2015.

The latest attempt to reset his campaign comes in the state that delivered Trump his closest statewide margin of victory four years ago and that is once again expected to be a battleground in 2024.

Trump aides have long thought that an inflationary economy was an albatross for Democrats this year. But the event in Asheville only amplifies questions about whether Trump can effectively make it a centerpiece of his matchup against Harris.

The speech came the same day that the Labor Department reported that year-over-year inflation reached its lowest level in more than three years in July, a potential reprieve for Harris in the face of Trump’s attacks over inflation. Harris plans to be in North Carolina on Friday to release more details of her promise to make “building up the middle class … a defining goal of my presidency.”

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that Americans are more likely to trust Trump over Harris when it comes to handling the economy, but the difference is slight — 45% for Trump and 38% for Harris.

Some voters who came to hear Trump said they were ready to hear him talk more specifically about his plans, not because they don’t already trust him but because they want him to expand his appeal ahead of Election Day.

“He needs to tell people what he’s going to do, talk about the issues,” said Timothy Vath, a 55-year-old who drove from Greenville, South Carolina. “He did what he said he was going to do” in his initial term. “Talk about how he’d do that again.”

Mona Shope, a 60-year-old from nearby Candler, said Trump, despite his own wealth, “understands working people and wants what’s best for us.” A recent retiree from a public community college, Shope said she has a state pension but has picked up part-time work to mitigate against inflation. “It’s so I can still have vacations and spending money after paying my bills,” she said. “Sometimes it feels like there’s nothing left to save.”

In some of his off-script moments, Trump ventured into familiar misrepresentations of fact, including when he mocked wind energy by suggesting people would face power outages when the wind wasn’t blowing.

Trump again insisted that inflation would not have spiked had he been reelected in 2020, a claim that ignores the global supply chain interruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, COVID-19 spending boosts that included a massive aid package Trump signed as president, and the global energy price effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A Harris aide said Wednesday that the vice president welcomes any comparison Trump is able to make.

“No matter what he says, one thing is certain: Trump has no plan, no vision, and no meaningful interest in helping build up the middle class,” communications director Michael Tyler wrote in a campaign memo. Tyler pointed to the economic slowdown of the pandemic and 2017 tax cuts that were tilted to corporations and wealthy individual households, and predicted Trump’s proposals on trade, taxation and reversing Biden-era policies would “send inflation skyrocketing and cost our economy millions of jobs – all to benefit the ultra-wealthy and special interests.”

WASHINGTON (AP) — Vice President Kamala Harris has a perceived advantage over former President Donald Trump on several leadership qualities such as honesty, a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds, although Americans are slightly more likely to trust Trump on the economy and immigration.

Nearly half of Americans say that “committed to democracy” and “disciplined” are attributes that better describe Harris. About 3 in 10 say these qualities better describe Trump.

About 4 in 10 say Harris is someone who “cares about people like you” while about 3 in 10 say that about Trump. About 4 in 10 say “honest” better describes Harris and 24% say that quality better describes Trump.

Both parties are racing to define Harris as she prepares to accept the Democratic nomination at the party’s convention next week. The poll suggests she carries some of the same baggage that weighed down President Joe Biden before he ended his reelection bid but has advantages over Trump when they’re compared to each other. And Democrats continue to be much happier about her candidacy than they were about Biden’s.

Trump has spent the campaign championing himself as a strong leader who is capable of handling tough crises facing the country and suggesting that foreign leaders wouldn’t respect Harris in the White House. But he doesn’t have an advantage with Americans on that characteristic, according to the survey. Four in 10 U.S. adults see Trump as a strong leader, and roughly the same share say that about Harris. About 4 in 10 say Trump is capable of handling a crisis, and a similar share say Harris is better positioned to do so.

Americans are about evenly divided between who they think is more capable of winning in November — Trump or Harris. In July, before Biden dropped out of the race, only about 2 in 10 Americans thought he was more capable of winning, while about twice as many thought that about Trump.

“Trump had a better chance when Joe Biden was running,” said Lisa Miller, a 42-year-old student in Elko, Nevada, and a Republican. “I think a lot of people who were insecure about Joe Biden are more secure with Kamala Harris’ age and cognitive abilities.”

Trump has advantages on the economy and immigration

Americans are more likely to trust Trump over Harris when it comes to handling the economy or immigration, but the difference is slight — 45% say Trump is better positioned to handle the economy, while 38% say that about Harris. The difference is similar in handling immigration. Independents are about twice as likely to trust Trump over Harris on economic issues, and they give him the advantage on immigration as well.

Howard Barnes, a 36-year-old artist in San Francisco, is a Republican who says he trusts Trump over Harris on the border.

“She doesn’t really seem to be proactive about it or even interested in it,” Barnes said.

Harris has more of an advantage over Trump when it comes to handling issues related to race and racial inequality, abortion policy, and health care. Roughly half of U.S. adults say Harris would do a better job than Trump handling each of those issues, compared with about 3 in 10 for Trump. Harris is especially strong among Democrats, independents and women on the issue of abortion policy.

Democrats and independents give her the edge on health care, as well as on issues of race and racial inequality. About two-thirds of Black adults say Harris is the candidate they trust more on that issue, as well as about half of Hispanic adults and white adults.

Harris’ strengths also accentuate two areas where Republicans give Trump relatively low marks: abortion policy and issues related to race and racial inequality. Only about 6 in 10 Republicans trust Trump over Harris on these issues.

There are possible signs of trouble for Harris in the poll, though. Only about 6 in 10 Democrats trust her over Trump to do a better job handling the war in Gaza, her lowest rating within her party on the issues asked about. About one-quarter of Democrats say they trust neither Trump nor Harris on this topic.

Democrats are more excited about the election now

About two-thirds of Democrats say “excited” describes either extremely well or very well how they would feel if Harris were to be elected.

The enthusiasm represents a sharp reversal from when Biden was the Democrats’ candidate: an AP-NORC poll from March found that only 4 in 10 Democrats said “excited” would describe their feelings extremely or very well if he won another term. About 7 in 10 Democrats say “satisfied” would describe their emotions at least very well if Harris won. That’s also a shift from March, when half of Democrats said this about Biden.

“There’s definitely joy and there’s definitely hope, and I feel like that’s something that’s been missing,” said Meaghan Dunfee, a 33-year-old public-sector worker in Hamilton, New Jersey. “I don’t think we’ve had that in a long time on the Democratic side.”

About 2 in 10 independents say they would be either excited or satisfied by Harris being elected, an increase from their response to the Biden question in March. Roughly half of independents say excitement would describe their emotions at least “somewhat” well, up from about one-quarter in March. Similar shares of independents say they would be excited or satisfied about Trump being elected.

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Cooper reported from Phoenix.

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The poll of 1,164 adults was conducted August 8-12, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.