The amendment that would enshrine abortion rights in the Florida Constitution has enough support from voters to pass, a poll released Tuesday reports. So does a separate amendment that would legalize recreational marijuana for adults.
But there are significant caveats, and supporters of the proposals shouldn’t pop any champagne just yet.
The poll also found that President Donald Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris in the contest for Florida’s 30 electoral votes.
Trump has 49% to 42% for Harris. The numbers are in line with expectation in the increasingly Republican state.
Harris has the support of 82% of Democrats and Trump has the support of 82% of Republicans. Independents are split, with 50% for Trump and 38% for Harris.
Amendments
The findings come from a University of North Florida poll released Tuesday morning.
Adding amendments to the Florida Constitution requires support of 60% of those voting to pass, which is a high, difficult-to-meet threshold.
UNF found that 69% of Florida likely voters support the amendment guaranteeing access to abortion, with 23% opposed.
The abortion proposal has the support of 87% of Democrats, 53% of Republicans, and 71% of independents.
The referendum that would allow recreational use of marijuana under state law by adults had support of 64% of likely voters, with 31% opposed.
The marijuana proposal has the support of 79% of Democrats, 50% of Republicans, and 63% of independents.
Still, it’s more than three months until Election Day. There’s been a lot of news media coverage on the abortion and marijuana questions, and extensive publicity efforts among those urging support.
While there have been outspoken opponents to both, headlined by Gov. Ron DeSantis, opposition advertising hasn’t yet geared up.
“We have yet to see campaigns on either side of this really get moving,” Michael Binder, UNF political scientist and director of its Public Opinion Research Lab, said about the abortion amendment.
Pointing to the controversial statement about the financial impact of the question recently added to the ballot summary, Binder said in a statement that he “would expect to see support for this amendment drop before November.”
If there’s a strong advertising campaign against the marijuana question, Binder said support may decrease.
Senate race
The poll also found U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla, with support from 47% of likely voters and 43% for former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Democratic candidate. (She’s a candidate in the Aug. 20 primary, but doesn’t yet have the party’s nomination.)
Binder pointed to Scott’s “history of winning razor-thin statewide races in Florida, and in a state that has become significantly more red in the past six years, this could be another close race for Scott.”
School boards
The poll asked about a much lesser-known proposed amendment that would change the system of elections for school board members.
It would turn school board elections into partisan Democratic vs. Republican contests, as opposed to the current elections, which are nonpartisan.
The proposal has support from only 37% of likely voters, with 40% opposed and 23% either not knowing or not answering.
“The language in this ballot measure has some confusing ‘legalese,’ which is likely adding to the uncertainty among voters,” Binder said, adding it “looks doomed to fail.”
Fine print
The poll of 774 U.S. registered voters was conducted July 24 to July 27 by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.
The survey used an online panel, in which voters were contacted by text message and asked to complete the survey, and from live callers.
The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
