The contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is tied, a national Florida Atlantic University poll reported Tuesday, just over a week since she became the de facto Democratic nominee for president.
The poll found Harris has 48% to Trump’s 46% among likely voters.
The result is within the survey’s margin of error, making the results a statistical tie.
Among a slightly larger pool of all voters, not just those seen as likely to vote, the poll finds Harris and Trump tied at 46%.
The campaign is still in flux. Harris’ campaign began on July 21, immediately after President Joe Biden said he would end his reelection campaign.
Since then, in Florida and across the country, Democrats have reported enthusiastic support for their new candidate as Republicans have switched gears from opposing Biden to opposing Harris.
“I think it shows that we are a pretty divided country. Part of the deficit for Biden was with Democratic enthusiasm. At least for now, it appears that Harris has captured much of the Democratic base and returned the race to basically a dead heat,” Kevin Wagner, an FAU political scientist, said via text.
Wagner — who also is co-director of FAU’s PolCom Lab, a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science, which conducted the poll — said the numbers show “how much Biden was dragging the ticket.”
Demographic breakdowns:
— American voters quickly assumed their partisan positions. Among Democratic likely voters surveyed, Harris has support of 82%. Among Republicans, Trump has support of 87%. Independent likely voters are closely divided, with 45% for Harris and 43% for Trump. “The presidential race really shows how much partisan identity drives our choices. This has become another election that will be decided by who turns out their voters better,” Wagner said.
— There is a gender gap. Among women, Harris is at 50% and Trump at 43%. Among men, Harris has 45% and Trump is at 49%.
— Democrats have touted Harris’ appeal to younger voters. The Florida Democratic Party put out an email blast Tuesday morning that proclaimed, “The youth vote will decide the election.”
That doesn’t show up in the FAU poll. Among likely voters younger than 50, Harris is at 41% to 49% for Trump. Among likely voters 50 and older, Harris is at 52% and Trump is at 44%.
Wagner said the breakdowns by age are large groups that may not best assess the views of the youngest voters. And, he said, younger voters often are one of the last groups to focus on an election.
A week ago, an FAU national poll found 49% for Trump, the Republican nominee, to 44% for Harris, among likely voters. It’s not a direct comparison, since the poll released on July 23 was conducted immediately after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention with questioning halted immediately after Biden dropped out. So the matchup was hypothetical, without people actually seeing the rollout of her campaign.
When likely voters were given the additional choice in the new poll of independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., he gets 8% in a three-way matchup.
With Kennedy in a hypothetical matchup, Harris is at 44% and Trump at 43%.
Another test
The poll included a generic question asking people which party they’d vote for in fall elections for U.S. House of Representatives.
Likely voters favored the Democrat over the Republican 47% to 42%, a five-point advantage for Democrats, and among all voters a Democrat was ahead 46% to 42%, a four-point advantage.
A week earlier, Republicans had a one-point advantage among likely voters, and Democrats had a one-point advantage among all voters.
Wagner said the small Democratic lead in the latest survey is a “good measure that Harris’ candidacy has brought the base back and will likely help down ballot. This is one of the reasons so many elected Dems wanted Biden to step aside.”
Favorability
Harris was viewed favorably by 53% of voters and unfavorably by 44%, which is a net favorability rating of 9 percentage points.
Among Democrats, 87% viewed her favorably, compared to 17% of Republicans and 48% of independents.
Trump was viewed favorably by 49% of voters and unfavorably by 50%, a net negative of 1 point.
Among Democrats, 19% viewed him favorably, compared to 86% of Republicans and 43% of independents.
Biden departure
Many voters had positive emotional reactions to Biden’s decision to end his reelection and Harris taking his place, the survey found.
Asked about Biden being out and Harris being in, 20% of voters expressed excitement, 18% joy/happiness, 18% fear, 9% pride, 7% sadness and 7% anger.
Comparisons:
- Democrats — 33% expressed excitement, 24% joy/happiness, 16% pride, 7% fear, 7% sadness and 3% anger.
- Republicans — 32% expressed fear, 12% anger, 11% joy/happiness, 10% sadness, 7% excitement; and 3% pride.
- Independents — 19% expressed excitement, 17% joy/happiness, 16% fear, 8% anger, 7% pride and 5% sadness.
Republicans (26%) and independents (28%) were much more likely than Democrats (11%) to say they didn’t know how they felt.
Fine print
The poll of 997 U.S. registered voters was conducted July 26 to July 27 by Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University’s PolCom Lab, which is a collaboration of the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies and Department of Political Science.
The survey used an online panel and automated phone calls to reach other voters. It has a margin of error equivalent to plus or minus 3 percentage points for the full survey of Democrats, Republicans and independents.
However, the margin of error for smaller groups, such as Republicans or Democrats or men and women, would be higher because the sample sizes are smaller.
Anthony Man can be reached at aman@sunsentinel.com and can be found @browardpolitics on Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and Mastodon.
